Modi’s Pakistan gamble put to test

Pakistan condemns, but attack bound to raise discord

The attack on the IAF base in Pathankot by Pakistani terrorists has thrown the first major challenge to the Modi government’s policy of engagement and resumption of the “comprehensive bilateral dialogue” with Pakistan and could put New Delhi in a bind on how to deal with its troublesome western neighbour. Pakistan swiftly condemned the “terrorist” Pathankot attack, referring to the goodwill created by “the recent high-level contacts between the two countries”, adding that it remains committed to partnering with India to eradicate the menace of terrorism. The statement reflects the dichotomy that India faces from across the border, with the political establishment in Islamabad wanting to be seen to be reaching out to India while the military establishment there remains indifferent or even hostile.

The obvious question now before the Modi government is whether to go ahead with talks with Pakistan. Perhaps New Delhi has now gone too far ahead and raised too many hopes which may make it difficult to completely pull back from the peace initiatives last month.

However, the attack will almost certainly raise a discordant note in the relations and the Modi government is bound to find itself under enormous pressure to once again insist that Pakistan-sponsored terror must cease before any meaningful talks take place.

On the security front, the attack also shows that hardly any lessons seem to have been learnt by India after a previous, almost similar, terror strike in Gurdaspur, Punjab, just a few months ago, that had highlighted certain vulnerable stretches of the Indo-Pak international border in the Jammu region. The fact that terrorists, just like the last time around, could not have sneaked through without the active support of the paramilitary Pakistan Rangers also raises serious questions on the commitment of the Pakistani military establishment to the peace process.

There has been a lull for the past eight weeks on the Line of Control during which developments like the meeting of the two NSAs in Bangkok, the visit of external affairs minister Sushma Swaraj to Islamabad and the brief visit of Prime Minister Narendra Modi to Lahore took place, raising hopes that perhaps under American pressure, the Pakistan Army and the ISI were finally falling in line. But as it turned out, this proved to be the calm before the storm.

The timing of the attack also raises suspicions that the Pakistan Army is finally trying to reassert itself following the Modi-Sharif meeting and that this could be another ploy of the Pakistani military establishment and the ISI to derail the talks and then put the blame on India. The attack after Mr Modi’s sudden visit to Lahore is already drawing comparisons with former PM Vajpayee’s Lahore bus visit in 1999 which was followed by Pakistani incursions in Kargil.

Home minister Rajnath Singh’s assertion, in the wake of the latest attack, that India wants peace with Pakistan but that will react fiercely to a terror strike is the first indication that the Modi government will now be more circumspect, especially after the optimism that followed the meeting between the two Prime Ministers in Lahore. It may be recalled that the Pakistan Army had started rampant ceasefire violations on the border a few months ago following the earlier meeting of the two PMs at Ufa, Russia, last year.

But the attack raises other concerns too. Three years ago, in the beginning of January, the Pakistan Army had carried out a daring stealthy cross-border attack across the LoC that left two Indian soldiers dead, one of whom was beheaded. Is the Pakistan Army about to begin a fresh round of ceasefire violations and cross-border attacks to re-ignite the LoC