BJP to get upper hand in Upper House

New Delhi: With massive mandate in Uttar Pradesh, the path is now clear for the BJP to get its nominee in Rashtrapati Bhavan. Presidential poll is scheduled to take place in July this year wherein BJPs strong performance in Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand and Manipur is expected to boost its nominee’s prospects.

Electoral college for the President comprises MLAs from all 29 states and two Union territories (Delhi and Puducherry) besides MPs from both the Lok Sabha and the Rajya Sabha. The Rajya Sabha arithmetic is also expected to tilt in favour of the BJP by 2018.

The saffron party is now expected to have a majority both in Lok Sabha and Rajya Sabha by the end of next year, which could help it in ensuring passage of crucial bills.

Saturday’s poll results will, however, not affect the vice-presidential election scheduled for August. The electoral for vice-president comprises of MPs from both the Houses of Parliament.

Though the arithmetic in the Rajya Sabha may not be affected this year, presently, the NDA’s tally stands at 74 and is marginally higher than the UPA 71. However, the ruling alliance is still far from the majority mark of 123 — crucial for getting key legislations passed in the Upper House. The NDA gained a few seats in the biennial elections to the Rajya Sabha last year, but it will have to wait till April 2018 to gain a substantial number of seats.

Over the next year, there are expected to be 68 seats up for grabs in the Upper House. The ramifications of the UP verdict will be felt clearly in 2018 when 10 seats from the state will become vacant in the Rajya Sabha due to retirement of members. It is then that the BJP will make substantial gains.

In April 2018, there will be 10 vacancies in UP and one in Uttarakhand where the BJP can effectively elect its nominee. Goa is the only one among the five states going to polls which will report one vacancy in the Rajya Sabha this year, which will be vacant on July 28. However, Manipur and Punjab won’t report any vacancy during the current government’s tenure till May 2019.

Nine more seats will be up for grabs this August which include three from Gujarat and six from West Bengal. However, these vacancies will not have much of an effect on the current composition of the Upper House.

Besides UP and Uttarakhand, other states which will report vacancies in 2018 include Delhi, Kerala, Madhya Pradesh, Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka among others.