Will Modi-Xi meet bring peace to the South Asian region?

If the unprecedented Narendra Modi-Xi Jinping conclave at Wuhan, China, has made waves, it is because it has been approached and organised/implemented differently compared to any previous Sino-Indian summits.

While wishlists of both India and China on what all should happen or should not happen, some basic essentials that India considers most important are peace on the Line of Actual Control (LAC), without the almost daily border dispute issues, fair trade ties, ruffle-free politico-diplomatic relations and good/social, business, cultural and educational exchanges.

The Wuhan meet leaves no doubt about China’s and India’s serious intent. It is also just as well that its content was controlled, in that there were just a few official disclosures from officials. And what is also good news is that there were no reports of any untoward incident on the LAC, unlike during almost all earlier state visits or diplomatic events, when China’s People’s Liberation Army crossed it in some form or the other.

What has — not surprisingly — escaped public notice and in official circles taken for granted/not made much of is that Doklam marked the completion of 50 years of bullet-less border management, that is, since the bloody skirmishes at Nathu La and Cho La in Sikkim in September-October 1967.

And while the over six weeks long Doklam standoff also ended without bullets being fired, there were reports of resumption of Chinese PLA’s construction/occupation related activities.

On March 24, 2018, India’s ambassador to China Gautam Bambawale, seemingly denied reports of Chinese military stepping up the infrastructure in the disputed area of Doklam and added that the status quo in the area did not change.

On the issue of the standoff, he said that it happened because Beijing tried to alter the status quo. However, on March 26, 2018, Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson Hua Chunying said that Doklam belongs to China and India should have learned lessons from the standoff last year. The Chinese republic also claimed that its activities in the area are within its sovereign rights and there is no such thing as changing status quo. Then came the “informal” summit of Mr Modi and Mr Xi in Wuhan, which was expected to stabilise the two nations’ relationship.

On April 26, 2018, China’s military spokesman Col. Wu Qian, reportedly told the media in Beijing: “It is the common expectation of both peoples to stabilise relations between the Chinese and Indian armed forces and maintain peace and tranquility at the border areas.”

India’s foreign secretary Vijay Keshav Gokhale, addressing media on the summit reportedly stated:

• Four of the meetings were one-to-one.
• There were no agreements or announcements.
• There were discussions between Messrs Modi and Xi on bilateral issues of global importance, trade, bilateral issues and strategic military relations.
• Mr Modi discussed the importance of bilateral trade, and also ways to promote cultural and people-to-people relations.
• Proposals included moving ahead on spirituality, terms on building ties in films, environment, etc.
• Also discussed were sports and performances on the international level and how to strengthen tourism and holistic health between India and China.
• Mr Xi shared his expression on the preservation of Yangtze river, on the banks of which in Wuhan, the world was able to watch the two leaders interacting.

The 50 years of border management mentioned, the standoff at Doklam and many other earlier instances of transgressions and incursions by Chinese PLA across the LAC very often led to grappling/wrestling by soldiers of both nations, but fortunately all ended by dialogue at field commander to diplomatic level.

It must be noted that Wuhan happened almost immediately after India’s maiden participation in the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation’s (SCO) 15th Defence Ministers Meeting held at Beijing on April 24, 2018.

Speaking at this meet defence minister Nirmala Sitharaman highlighted India’s keen interest in developing an expanded partnership with the broader Eurasian region. India sought to build on long-standing ties of deep mutual trust and confidence with Russia, vibrant historical and cultural linkages with countries of Central Asia and closer development partnership with China and to further enhance and deepen ties with all member countries for mutual benefit.

Ms Sitharaman said India would work with SCO partners to energise and revitalise age-old ties of affinity with countries of the region. She sought a forward-looking partnership based on robust dialogue and concrete initiatives to enhance economic, trade and cultural cooperation and mutually beneficial interactions on defence and security matters.

Greater communication among member countries within the region was essential for progressive trends towards stability and peace to reassert itself, she said, and to arrest the current drift in ties between major powers. She emphasised that many problems that confront the region, such as climate change, cyber security, narcotics trafficking or violent transnational crime require solutions based on cooperative frameworks that involve all countries and stakeholders. This is particularly necessary to address the persistent threat of cross-border terrorism and extremism.

International terrorism is today the most serious threat to peaceful societies, she said. Terrorism threatens to derail our developmental aspirations and create sustained instability both within our countries and across national borders and that the member countries should closely coordinate and adopt a policy of zero tolerance towards terrorism. India will continue to engage strongly against terrorism with the SCO Regional Anti-Terrorist Structure based in Tashkent, Uzbekistan.

Strongly condemning yet another vicious terrorist attack in Kabul, Ms Sitharaman said the SCO must adopt an uncompromising approach towards the persisting threat of terrorism in Afghanistan, as it is essential to advance peace and prosperity in the region.

Since defence cooperation, especially enhanced linkages between armed forces is an important dimension of the SCO, Ms Sitharaman said India is keen to explore the full potentialities of this engagement and will engage with a positive approach on all issues related to defence cooperation within the SCO framework. She then elaborated: “India has already commenced practical steps to take forward defence engagement under the framework, as reflected in our first ever presence at this ministerial meeting and participation of the Indian Army band at the Fanfare for Peace military tattoo being held in conjunction with our meeting today. As we move ahead, India will also explore the possibility of coordinating some SCO defence activities in the coming years.” As India enjoys excellent bilateral defence cooperation with a large number of SCO countries, especially with Russia as well as with all of India’s Central Asian partners represented in the SCO, she said that cooperation in the SCO framework will help reinforce India’s efforts to strengthen bilateral cooperation with the partners in the region in the field of defence.

With that Ms Sitharaman confirmed India’s participation in a multi-nation counter-terror military exercise in Russia in September 2018, under the framework of the SCO, which after many years, will pitch Indian and Pakistani armies together along with China’s PLA and armies of several other countries. Indian and Pakistani armies have in the past, operated alongside or as part of the same international military field formation in United Nations’ peacekeeping missions. However, in the highly charged India-Pakistan relations since the past few years, this will be the first time that the two adversary armies will operate together.

As an SCO member, India sees itself in a position to play a major role in addressing the threat of terrorism in the region. It is also keen on deepening its security-related cooperation with the SCO and its Regional Anti-Terrorism Structure, which specifically deals with the issues relating to security and defence.

For India and China, two powerful and progressing nations, it simply does not make any sense to be involved in frequent dissent across their borders and enhancement of the arms race. It will be of great benefit to the large populations of both China and India, if the former sincerely shifts from its hegemonic tendency to focus on trade, technical cooperation and all other mentioned progressive pursuits.

It is very important for the South Asian region to rid itself of the spreading cancer of terrorism. The Indian Army and the security forces have the maximum experience in countering terrorism. Will China decide to cooperate with India to end terrorism, which mainly emanates from Pakistan and also affects China? If China does so, terrorism in South Asia can be obliterated.

The writer, a retired Army officer, is a defence and security analyst based in New Delhi