Along with holding public rallies all over the country to up his profile and take his message of throwing out the United Progressive Alliance (UPA), Narendra Modi has also been working to get friends
Along with holding public rallies all over the country to up his profile and take his message of throwing out the United Progressive Alliance (UPA), Narendra Modi has also been working to get friends and allies on board to create a formidable coalition. Whether it is wooing back B.S. Yeddyurappa, who was kicked out of the Bharatiya Janata Party in Karnataka when he faced corruption charges to bringing back estranged former ally, Chandrababu Naidu, into the fold, Mr Modi is reaching out to everyone who can possibly be of use. In Tamil Nadu, he already is friends with J. Jayalalithaa, though she has given no public indication of where she stands. Raj Thackeray and perhaps even Mamata Banerjee could also be on the list. Mr Modi’s desperation is understandable. Soon after he was named as the head of the BJP campaign committee at the Goa conclave, the Janata Dal (United) walked out of the National Democratic Alliance (NDA). That left the coalition, once formed of as many as 23 parties, with just two significant partners, the Akali Dal and the Shiv Sena. The Sena, after showing some restiveness, settled down to accept Mr Modi, but if he were to make serious overtures to Mr Thackeray, there is no saying how the Sena will react. Under Atal Behari Vajpayee, the NDA had parties like the National Conference, the Biju Janata Dal and even the All-India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam and Trinamul Congress. One by one, over the years, the allies dropped out, most of them in the years after 2002 as they saw that aligning with the BJP in the aftermath of the Gujarat riots was detrimental to their electoral fortunes. That may not stop them from walking back into the NDA if the BJP does really well in the 2014 elections, but they will not want to commit before the results are out. The BJP, on the other hand, is keen that electoral alliances are sewn up as soon as possible so that it gets a base in different states, especially in the south where it is in danger of being wiped out. Karnataka was its sole government in the south, a triumph in a scenario where a large chunk of voters were totally out of its reach. Once they chucked out Mr Yeddyurappa, even that slipped out of their hands; no wonder Mr Modi wants him back in the fold, corruption or no corruption. So far Mr Modi’s attempts have been unsuccessful. Indeed, his elevation has lost one key ally and gained no new ones. That is a harsh reality the BJP must accept, no matter all the hype around Mr Modi. Even if the party wins 180 seats — a tall order indeed, since that would entail around 60 seats in Uttar Pradesh and a substantial number in Bihar — without allies with sufficient numbers of their own, it cannot hope to form the government. Over at the UPA the situation is only marginally better. In the nine years since it came to power, the UPA has been steadily losing allies, keeping afloat almost miraculously and in ways that only the alliance knows. It has achieved the impossible task of getting support from both the Samajwadi Party and the Bahujan Samaj Party, but neither is in the government or even in the UPA formally. With just the Nationalist Congress Party, the Rashtriya Lok Dal and the National Conference fully behind it, the UPA too needs partners to go into the elections with confidence. The good news for the UPA is that slowly but surely, potential allies are making noises of moving towards it — the Left has indicated it is open to an alliance and the JD(U), having ditched the BJP, is also willing to play ball. Lalu Prasad Yadav has been an old supporter of the Congress, though how he will react if his bête noire JD(U) comes on board is to be seen. Overall, the Congress can afford to feel confident that it can cobble together a coherent pre-election coalition. But that is from the point of view of the bigger parties. What about the regional parties’ Most of them are one-man/woman outfits whose strength is the loyal vote in their own states. Even Mayawati has not been able to cross borders in any significant way. These regional parties tend to look out for themselves and quite a few — National Conference and Trinamul Congress are two good examples — have been with both the Congress and the BJP. This time round, their assessment would be that neither of the two will win enough to form the nucleus of a new coalition. In which case, a separate Front — call it Third, Fourth, United or whatever — could be a credible idea. If that happens, each of the leaders, from Ms Jayalalithaa to Nitish Kumar to Naveen Patnaik and even Sharad Pawar will be dreaming of making it to the top post. But to reach there, even they need backers who will support them. In this immensely fluid situation therefore, the best way to make friends and influence people is to offer them something tangible — old loyalties will have little meaning. Parties like the Shiv Sena and the Akali Dal, which will not under any circumstances cross over to the Congress, are few and far between. The rest will calculate how much aligning with this or that party will cost them. Will going with Mr Modi affect their Muslim vote If yes, then he is a no-no. Is the Congress a sinking boat Then why climb onto it Both the Congress and the BJP have to make offers the others cannot refuse — the season for making new friends has begun.
The writer can be contacted at sidharth01@gmail.com
