Global sentiments to guide market

There is a tug war between the bulls and bears around 200 DMA level, where the bears seem to prevail.

Global sentiments and institutional fund activity would be the major factors that will dictate market movement in this truncated week even as market participants are eagerly waiting for the announcement of election dates.

In the past week the market swung wild and finally ended with 0.5 per cent gains.

The equity, commodity and forex markets remained closed on Monday for Mahashivratri.

According to experts, market is trading near its 200, 100 and 50 EMAs, a rare phenomenon nowadays. The slope of all three moving averages is flat at 180 degrees. This is clearly a no trading, non-trending zone for the market but this will eventually resolve into a powerful move either up or down but given the current evidence of other Mid Cap and Small Cap indices it seems most likely the market will move higher but when is anybody's guess. Trading prudence suggests being out of the market would be wiser till the time a clear trend is visible.

Technical View

Sameet Chavan, Chief Analyst-Technical and Derivatives, Angel Broking, said, "As far as levels are concerned, the Index has not gone anywhere and hence, we are still trapped in a trading range of 200 points i.e. 10930 - 10730. Only a sustainable breakout in either direction would lead to some trended move. Till then one should avoid trading aggressively. However, having said that, we have been quite vocal on the fact that the broader market is showing some signs of revival and this is what we have experienced in the week gone by. In fact, today we saw some blown up moves in bunch of individual stocks. Hence, it's better to focus on such potential candidates rather than just scratching our heads, tracking a tick-by-tick movement in the Index.

Sneha Seth, Derivatives Analyst, Angel Broking, said, "At current juncture, 10700-10750 is an immediate base for the Nifty; whereas, hurdle is placed around 10900-10950. However, looking at the last three series price action and scattered open interest in the Nifty options, we expect volatility to inch higher going ahead. As of now, traders are advised staying light in index until we don't see a sustainable move beyond the range of 10700-11000."

Debabrata Bhattacharjee, Head of Research, CapitalAim, said, "In spite of having rollover pressure it has managed to sustain above 10750. There is a tug war between the bulls and bears around 200 DMA level, where the bears seem to prevail. Going forward the Nifty benchmark is looking in a range bound trade ahead in the near and medium term.The support for the index in lower side is 10730-10700 while it can face resistance around 10900-10950. A sustainable move above 10950 could form more bullishness in near term towards 11000 or 11200 level,"

Market View

Jimeet Modi, Founder & CEO, SAMCO Securities, said, "The markets are unlikely to turn a particular way soon but if Indo-Pak tension snowballs into deeper confrontations then there can be a knee-jerk reaction. Investors can look out for pockets of quality companies in the wider market universe."

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