Moody’s flags surging debt trouble as the economy slows.
Beijing: Moody’s ratings agency on Wednesday cut China’s credit rating due to surging debt, prompting a protest by Beijing and highlighting challenges faced by Communist leaders as they overhaul a slowing economy.
The downgrade adds to warnings about China’s reliance on credit to propel growth after the 2008 global crisis. Private sector analysts say it could drag on the economy or threaten the health of the state-owned banking industry.
Moody’s Investors Service cut Beijing’s long-term local currency and foreign currency issuer ratings by one notch to A1 from Aa3. It said China’s financial strength is likely to erode as growth slows and debt will rise further. “We expect direct government, indirect and economy-wide debt to continue to rise, signaling an erosion of China’s credit profile,” Moody’s said.
The Chinese finance ministry criticised the decision. It said Moody’s overestimated difficulties facing the world’s second-largest economy and underestimated Beijing’s industrial reform and financial strength. Estimates of China’s total non-government debt have risen from the equivalent of 170 per cent of annual economic output in 2007 to 260 per cent last year.
Communist leaders have cited reducing financial risk as a priority this year. They have launched initiatives to reduce debts owed by state companies, including by allowing banks to accept stock to repay loans. But private sector analysts say they are moving too slowly.
The Moody's announcement triggered a sell-off in Chinese stocks. The country's market benchmark, the Shanghai Composite Index, declined 0.6 per cent by midday but recovered to end the day unchanged. A finance ministry statement accused Moody’s of using “inappropriate methods” that it said gave a false picture of China's financial outlook.
The ministry complained Moody’s failed to give enough weight to economic reforms. The government is trying to make the economy more productive by giving market forces a bigger role and through “supply side reform,” or shrinking bloated industries such as steel and cement in which supply exceeds demand, which has depressed prices and led to financial losses.
“It overestimates the difficulties facing the Chinese economy and underestimates the government's ability to deepen supply side structural reform and appropriately expand overall demand,” the ministry said.
Chinese economic growth fell from 14.2 per cent in 2007 to 6.7 per cent last year, though that still was among the world’s strongest. The finance ministry noted the growth rate ticked up to 6.9 per cent in the quarter ending in March and said tax revenue rose 11.8 per cent in the first four months of the year.
Beijing is trying to steer the economy to slower, more sustainable growth based on domestic consumption instead of investment and exports. But growth has repeatedly dipped faster than planners wanted, raising the risk of politically dangerous job losses. Beijing has responded by flooding the economy with credit.