AA Edit l Nitish Powers NDA to Win By a Tsunami Across Bihar
Nitish's party JD(U)’s surge propelled the Modi-Nitish-led NDA to an astounding victory with a mammoth four-fifths majority
Nitish Kumar is all set to take oath for a historic 10th time as chief minister of Bihar. His party JD(U)’s surge propelled the Modi-Nitish-led NDA to an astounding victory with a mammoth four-fifths majority. With the BJP trouncing RJD to become the largest party, the victory, by a stupendous 202-35 margin against the INDIA alliance is to be seen as an overwhelming pro-incumbency vote in the politically complex state of Bihar with its caste equations and its lower economic and development status.
Only a multiplicity of factors could have driven such a result, with the foremost among them being a record turnout of women in the polls which drew the highest number of voters too. Whatever be the misgivings, especially as nursed by the opposition over the SIR exercise having reduced the electorate by a considerable percentage, the fact remains that the women decided that a bird in hand — the Rs 10,000 cash transfer — is worth more than two in the bush as represented by the Tejashwi Yadav promise of an attractive Rs 30,000 in doles.
The Prime Minister’s faith in the indefatigable CM Nitish Kumar leading the alliance may not have been universal in his BJP party, but the shrewd judgment paid off with the stalwart banking on their regular coalition of extremes in the lower OBCs and dalits who may favour his JD(U) and the upper castes and EBCs who may favour the BJP more could easily enough trump a dissonant opposition banking only on the Yadav-Muslim vote bank.
The sweep could not have come without the larger all-round support that the JDU-BJP-LJP-HAM drew. It would have certainly helped that the opposition was seen to be distracted by Rahul Gandhi’s “vote chori” obsession in his blow-hot blow cold association with the campaign. Tejashwi Yadav did see through it and ramped up the promise of freebie-driven welfarism to stay relevant. But it was an uphill battle against people’s preference for the status quo as exemplified in Mr Kumar’s handling of the social arithmetic and his focus on law-and-order that has done much to transform the state.
All the enthusiasm that the INDIA combine read into their rallies did not translate into votes. In any case, the appeal of the Mahagathbandhan was limited to certain regions and its argument that the days of the “Jungle Raj” were in the distant past was not convincing enough, so too its appeal to the Gen Z which it believed would be disillusioned enough with the lack of jobs for freshers in the state to wish to bring about change.
The presence of a third force in the erstwhile political consultant Prashant Kishor’s Jan Suraaj Party was overhyped. The realisation may have already dawned that it is easier to be a pundit than a player in the electoral fray. On the other hand, the continuity message conveyed by Narendra Modi and Mr Kumar seemed far more credible in the face of progress in building state infrastructure in roads, etc. But what sort of message did the INDIA alliance give the voters of Bihar by setting up their so-called “friendly fight” in a dozen seats?