Monsoon in Kerala June 7, delay likely in rest of India

Residents of Maharashtra will have to wait longer for the monsoon as the weather department forecast indicates a delay in the onset of the monsoon in Kerala. The onset of southwest monsoon over Kerala signals the arrival of monsoon over the Indian subcontinent and represents the beginning of the rainy season over the region. As the normal monsoon onset over Kerala is June 1, the Indian Meteorological department (IMD) confirmed strong chances of the southwest monsoon, likely to set over Kerala on June 7, with a model error of plus or minus four days.

Rajiv Nair, director, IMD said that there are a number of factors which play a crucial role in predicting the delay of monsoon, including temperatures over North-west India, pre-monsoon rainfall peak over the south peninsula, lower tropospheric zonal wind over southeast Indian ocean among others.

“As of now, the predictors are indicating that the monsoon will be delayed in Maharashtra since it will be delayed in Kerala. However, we cannot offer the exact estimate of when exactly it will arrive in the state,” said Mr Nair.

The southwest monsoon advances over the Andaman Sea normally around May 20 with a standard deviation of about one week. Strong convective activity has been observed over the equatorial Indian Ocean for the last several days.

A well-marked low-pressure area has formed over the Indian Ocean, which will concentrate into a depression and move northwestwards. As a result, conditions are becoming favourable for the onset of southwest monsoon over Nicobar Islands, south Andaman Sea and parts of south Bay of Bengal around May 17 and advancement over the entire Andaman Sea close to its normal date.

Past data suggest that there is no association of the date of monsoon advance over the Andaman Sea either with the date of monsoon onset over Kerala or with the seasonal monsoon rainfall over the country.

On the other hand, state has witnessed pre-monsoon rainfall at isolated places over south Konkan, including Goa, central Maharashtra and Marathwada. Weather experts confirmed that the weather was dry in the rest of the region.

As the heat weave anomaly continues in certain parts of the state, 45 degree Celsius was recorded at Parbhani and Ahmedabad which was the highest maximum temperature in the region. Rain and thundershowers is likely to occur at isolated places over south central Maharashtra.