BJP’s Marathi votebank may see split

The BJP’s non-Marathi votebank in Mumbai could split due to a number of factors. While Patels, who are agitating against the BJP government in the neighbouring Gujarat on the issue of reservation agitation, may not to vote for the saffron party, North Indians, especially those who have come from Uttar Pradesh and Bihar, would divide between the Samajwadi Party, the Congress and the BSP.

Gujarati voters have always been decisive in Mumbai where they are not being seen as an “outsider” like other non-Maharashtrians.

According to sources, the BJP is unlikely to win the coming BrihanMumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC) elections on its own because of a number of factors. First, the growing rift between BJP and Shiv Sena workers after the two parties had fought the 2014 state Assembly polls against each other and came together reluctantly. Second, the BJP’s open support to the demand of bifurcating Maharashtra. Third, the Shiv Sena does not want to become a junior ally of the BJP in the state, and fourth, the “unequal” distribution of power as the BJP leadership rejected the suggestion to create a deputy chief minister’s post for the Shiv Sena.

A senior MP from Maharashtra predicted that the BJP is unlikely to get Marathi votes in the changing situation while top leaders of the two parties are not keen to have a pre-poll alliance in the BMC.

Earlier, the BJP was optimistic that it could check the Shiv Sena in the BMC on non-Marathi votes, especially Gujaratis, but the Patidar agitation in Gujarat is changing the political arithmetic of the saffron party.

On the other hand, the Hindutva factor may not attract North Indians in Mumbai due to the outcome of the Bihar and Delhi elections, which had seen a crushing defeat for the BJP. “Their votes will split between the BJP, Congress and the BSP,” the MP said, adding anti-incumbency will also be factor in this election.

While the Congress has yet to make up its mind whehter to fight this poll on its won or with the Sharad Pawar led party,the Shiv Sena which was formed on the issue 'Marathi Manoos’ cannot afford to ally with other parties and thus give its space to them .