Myanmar’s post-poll scenarios

It will probably take days to count the millions of votes expected to be cast on Sunday in Myanmar’s historic election. once the dust has settled, what is the most likely outcome Here is a list of potential scenarios.

Suu Kyi’s Opposition wins clear majority An outright majority would give Aung San Suu Kyi’s National League for Democracy (NLD) party a much stronger footing in the jostling for who becomes President, a post that will be decided by Myanmar’s legislative chambers in early 2016.

To do that, the NLD need to win 67 per cent of the 491 seats available (323 in the Lower House, 168 in the Upper).

In contrast, her rivals — the Army-backed USDP party — need only win 33 per cent of the seats. That’s because under Myanmar’s junta-crafted Constitution, a quarter of legislative seats are reserved for military appointees who would be allied to the USDP.

Even if Ms Suu Kyi wins she can’t becomes President — the Constitution bars those with foreign born offspring from taking the top spot. It is a condition many believe was specifically crafted to stop Ms Suu Kyi, who has two British sons.

No clear majority on either side

If this happens Myanmar will enter an intense period of political horse-trading and alliance building. The NLD could take a majority in the Lower House, but fail to seize control of the Upper House.

Ms Suu Kyi would then need to find potential coalition partners. Her most likely allies are from the parties representing Myanmar’s ethnic minorities. Army-backed USDP wins Few expect the NLD to receive a drubbing at the ballot box if the vote is free and fair. But with no independent exit polls and a dearth of election data, it is very difficult to measure whether Ms Suu Kyi’s popularity will in fact translate into votes and seats.

The worst case scenario: Civil unrest Given Myanmar’s turbulent history, a period of instability and even conflict cannot be ruled out. Such a scenario is much more likely if there are widespread allegations — or proof — of election fraud. The President and the military have insisted they will respect the election outcome.