‘Retaliation by Pak may lead to full-blown war’

While Pakistan-sponsored terrorism and the Uri attack have left India with no choice, but to assert its military might and send a strong message to its western neighbour that it is capable of carrying out surgical strikes against terror launch pads, there is always a possibility that any retaliation by Pakistan may result in a full-fledged war with India. Experts unanimously agree that the effects of a full-blown war will be devastating for both the nuclear-armed neighbours. Pakistan has been flaunting its nuclear arsenal and warning India that it will not hesitate to use it in case its security is threatened. “Pakistan feels its policy of nuclear blackmail will work, but India has shown it is ready for any scenario forced upon it by Pakistan. It is time to call Pakistan’s nuclear bluff,” sources said.

But the effects of even a conventional war, not to mention a scenario of nuclear strikes will leave the economies of both countries shattered. The Kargil conflict of 1999 again was a localised conflict and fortunately did not escalate to a full-fledged war across all sectors despite the dangers. Instead of escalation along all sectors, experts therefore advocate a policy of restriction to strong localised counter-terror operations near the LoC in J&K, more effective monitoring and enforcing of the counter-terror grid at the LoC wherein India is able to neutralise terrorists effectively who are trying to sneak in from across the border. But even this could prove to be inadequate if Pakistan goes all-out in its efforts to push in terrorists across the LoC, leaving a very real possibility of a war breaking out.

With the Pakistani establishment masterminding the Kargil intrusion in 1999 and terrorists with active backing of sections of the Pakistani military establishment carrying out the 26/11 attacks in 2008 apart from the more recent Gurdaspur, Pathankot and now Uri attacks, India has been left with little choice but to strike out at the terror launch pads across the LoC in PoK. While it is extremely unlikely that this will stop the Pakistani sponsorship of terror, the frequency of terror attack attempts from across the border may decrease, with the Pakistani Army more watchful and wary of Indian retaliation.

Ajai Sahni, a leading security expert, told this newspaper: “War is definitely not an option. War is something that is thrust unto a nation, it is definitely not for countries like India and Pakistan. Nor do I think this incident is going to escalate into a full-blown war”.