Rains to be normal to excess this year: IMD

There is no possibility of a “deficient” monsoon this year and 96 per cent chances are that the rainfall would be “normal to excess”, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said on Thursday, news that would bring some cheer to the farmers.

Releasing the second Long Range Forecast, IMD director-general Laxman Singh Rathore said the country is expected to receive a good rainfall this year, barring northeastern India which is likely to witness “below normal” rainfall. July and August are expected to receive 107 per cent and 104 per cent of rainfall of the Long Period Average (LPA).

“There are zero per cent chances of the country receiving deficient rainfall while the possibility of normal to excess rainfall is 96 per cent,” he said.

Terming the rainfall in Kerala as “pre-monsoon showers”, Mr Rathore said the southwest monsoon is expected to hit the state in the next four-five days.

Mr Rathore said once the monsoon hits Kerala, its progress will be quick, especially in eastern and central India.

Northwest India, comprising major food-producing states like Haryana and Punjab which have witnessed deficient precipitation in the last two years, will receive 108 per cent rainfall of the LPA.

Central and southern peninsula will receive 113 per cent of LPA while the Northeast is expected to get 94 per cent of rainfall which is “below normal”.

Anything less than 90 per cent of the LPA is termed as a “deficient” monsoon and 90-96 per cent is rated as “below normal”. Monsoon is considered “normal” if the LPA is between 96 and 104 per cent of the LPA.

“Above normal” monsoon is between 104-110 per cent of the LPA and anything beyond 110 per cent is considered “excess”.

Agriculture, which contributes 15 per cent to India’s GDP and employs about 60 per cent of the country’s population, is heavily dependent on the monsoon as only 40 per cent of the cultivable area is under irrigation.