Exit Polls: Close for Jaya; good news for Mamata, Assam BJP, Kerala Left

Congress-DMK combine ahead in Puducherry; exit polls so far have endorsed the opinion trend.

Exit polls results to elections in Tamil Nadu, Kerala, West Bengal, Assam and Puducherry were announced Monday evening and there were some surprises. But not for the Congress -- its decline continues.

In West Bengal, Trinamool Congress chief Mamata Banerjee is set to come back though analysts had given the new Left-Congress pact a shot. This combine was perhaps oversold as the disenchantment with Mamata is largely in the urban pockets. Rural Bengal has always been hers.

For the first time, a BJP-led government is poised to snatch power in Assam. BJP seems to have cashed in on the anti-incumbency wave here.

Kerala is not bucking the trend either. Numbers show that Kerala is throwing out the incumbent government, led by Congress’ Oommen Chandy, and bringing in the Left. But can it project a young face at the helm or will it be ruled by a 93-year-old

But history is in the making in Tamil Nadu as Amma is set to come back as chief minister for a second consecutive term – the first time anyone has managed that feat since 1989.

The final fate of West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Assam and Puducherry would be revealed on counting day, May 19 and it remains to be seen how close today’s exit polls come near the final tally.

Let us take a look at the exit poll predictions:

Tamil Nadu:

C-Voter, Times Now: This poll predicts 139 seats for AIADMK, 78 for DMK+, 0 for BJP and 17 for others.

India Today-Axis: This poll predicts 89-101 for AIADMK, 124-140 for DMK+, 0-3 for BJP and 4-8 for others.

News Nation: This poll forecasts 95-99 for AIADMK, 114-118 for DMK+, 14 for DMDK+, 4 for BJP and 9 for others.

In Tamil Nadu, the AIADMK alliance won an absolute majority in 2011, sweeping to power winning 203 seats out of 234, while the DMK alliance which included DMK, Congress and other regional parties could muster just 31. The BJP did not open its account.

Kerala:

The UDF won the 140-seat Kerala Assembly in 2011 73 to the LDF’s 67 in a very close contest.

This time, all pre-poll surveys have predicted a Left victory. Most polls have also predicted that the BJP might win a few, the first time in the history of Kerala.

West Bengal:

C-Voter, Times Now: This poll predicts 167 seats for Trinamool Congress, 75 for Left, 45 for Congress, 4 for BJP and 4 for others.

ABP- Ananda: This poll predicts 178 for TMC, 110 for Left-Congress and 1 for BJP. 'Others' have been given 5 seats.

India TV: This forecasts 167 seats for TMC, 75 for Left, 45 for Congress and 7 for others.

In West Bengal, the Trinamool Congress (TMC) in an alliance with the Congress shot to power in 2011 after 34 years of Left rule. The AITMC-Congress alliance won 226 of the 294 seats, with Trinamool Congress capturing 184 and the Congress 42 out of 65 contested seats. This time around, the Congress has switched to the Left camp – the unlikeliest alliance ever given their history in the state – but they have one common enemy: Mamata Banerjee.

Assam:

Times Now C-voter exit polls result too favoured the BJP in lead with 57 seats, Congress 41, AIUDF 18 and others 10.

India Today poll predicts an even spectacular win for the BJP-AGP combine with 79-93 seats.

ABP News predicts that the BJP-led alliance is set to form the govt in Assam with 81 seats and Congress was pegged to win 33.

In Assam, the Congress won in a landslide in 2011, capturing 79 seats of 126. The All India United Democratic Front (AIUDF) won 18 seats and the Bodoland People’s Front 12 seats. BJP finished with just 5 seats, down from 10 in 2006.

Exit poll results for Puducherry are yet to come in. Here are the opinion poll results predicted earlier this year.

Puducherry:

In Puducherry in 2011, the All India NR Congress (AINRC), which contested elections for the first time under this name, won 15 out of the 30 seats, having contested just 17. The Congress, which had backed the incumbent CM V Vaithilingam in an alliance, could only muster 7 seats. The AIADMK won 5 seats, the DMK 2 and Independents 1.

This time, the incumbent CM is expected to battle strong anti-incumbency sentiment. The Congress-ADMK alliance is projected to win 17 of the 30 seats according to an IndiaTV-C Voter survey. The AINRC will win 7 seats and the BJP zero. AIADMK will win one seat. Others will win 5 seats.

As far as vote share goes, BJP will win 8.7% of the popular votes. The Congress-DMK alliance is expected to win 32.8% of the votes while the AIADMK is expected to win 11.8%. The AINRC is expected to win 24.8%of the popular votes while the others are going to win the rest.

The Times Now-C Voter poll agreed, giving 17 seats to the Congress-DMK alliance and 7 to the ruling AINRC.

(This story is originally appeared on Deccan Chronicle as may the case be)