With Assembly polls, stage is set for 2014

A sense of anticipation has naturally developed in political circles with the announcement on Friday of the schedule for Assembly polls in Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Delhi and Mizoram. In the first three of these states, the Congress and the BJP are in direct confrontation. In Congress-ruled Delhi, the BJP is the key challenger, but a degree of certainty about the outcome has been introduced with the Aam Aadmi Party joining the fray. The BJP is not in the picture as a leading contestant in Mizoram, but the upcoming state polls to be held in November and early December will be hard fought and keenly watched as it sets the stage for the parliamentary election likely in April-May next year. Some have called the forthcoming ballot in the states the “semifinal” before the Lok Sabha polls, which is presumably the “final”. The sporting simile probably owes to the fact that the ruling party at the Centre is being directly challenged by the principal Opposition party in much of the battlezone. In real terms, of course, the Lok Sabha polls are a complex affair involving many parties in different regions, and the showing in the Assembly election may not have a one-to-one correspondence with even the preparation for the parliamentary election. The comparison is unreal also because the electoral line-up of parties for the Lok Sabha contest is not yet in evidence. The BJP was bested in its joust with the Congress in Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand and Karnataka in the last round of Assembly polls not so long ago. However, the political situation may have changed somewhat since then, primarily because Gujarat chief minister Narendra Modi has been officially declared the BJP’s prime ministerial candidate. Mr Modi has turned out to be the “X” factor, and the saffron party hopes that it will ride to victory under his leadership. Many hold the contrary view, of course. But there is little doubt that a new element has entered the frame. Special interest has come to be attached to the state elections because Mr Modi is in the process of unfurling himself even in the campaign for the Assembly polls with a view to raising voter awareness about himself. Until just a few days ago, he was officially leading his party’s poll preparations for the Lok Sabha as well as the Assembly elections. (Now that responsibility has been transferred to party chief Rajnath Singh since Mr Modi has been named the PM candidate.) While Assembly and parliamentary elections are fought differently in many respects (especially in the coalition era), the party that comes second best is likely to be at a psychological disadvantage in relation to the Lok Sabha polls. We will know on December 8 when the results come in.