True to predictions, on the back of news flow on GST implementation, FIIs attitude and progress of monsoon; Indian markets were in consolidation mode during the week ended.
Closing divergently, the Sensex ended 81 points higher at 31,138 and the Nifty closed 13 points lower at 9,575. Fall in the BSE mid-cap and small-cap indices by 1.5 per cent and 1.8 per cent indicates “tiredness” of bulls. It is pertinent to observe that FIIs were net sellers and DIIs were net buyers during the week.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to US may provide clues over resolution of H-1B visa imbroglio and some contentious trade issues. All eyes are on the implementation of GST from the midnight of June 30, so that it should be effective as per the deadline set by the GST Council.
Tax experts indicate that the impact on automobile, transportation, pharmaceutical and FMCG sectors can be positive while it could be negative for textiles industry and services like technology, telecom, banking, insurance etc.
Observers feel that a sharp fall is possible only if monsoon disappoints or there is delay in the revival of economy or some negative global event. 1 earnings may provide cues on post demonetisation recovery of economy.
Near term trend will be dictated by the implementation of GST, progress of monsoon, the dollar-rupee exchange rate, investment pattern of foreign institutional investors and international crude oil prices.
For the week ahead, chartists predict trading range of 30,750-31,500 and 9,425-9,750 for the indices. Key supports for the indices are at 30,925 & 30,750 and 9,500 & 9,425.