Kamal Davar | Can our forces learn lessons from conflicts in Gaza, Ukraine?

The world is, unquestionably, now at war with itself. In the very recent past, as it was slowly recovering from the near apocalyptical Chinese-originated Covid-19 pandemic, which ravaged the global economy and also mercilessly inflicted millions of fatalities attributable to the coronavirus, unexpected kinetic disruptions have taken place across the world. In February 2022, the vastly militarily superior Russian Army invaded its western neighbour, Ukraine, an act which was grossly unwarranted. This invasion razed a fair portion of eastern Ukraine, caused millions of hapless Ukrainians to flee to neighbouring European nations, with Ukraine now fighting for its very existence. The Russian forces too have suffered considerably, but the war still lingers, with no end in sight.

Then, in the ever-restive West Asia, on October 7, 2023, Iran-backed Hamas terrorists crossed the Gaza Strip and attacked a music festival being attended by hundreds of innocent civilians, killed over 200 innocents and took well over a hundred hostages. The Israelis expectedly retaliated with great fury, perhaps unjustified in its over-intensity, against the Palestinians and killed hundreds of innocent civilians and inflicted massive collateral damage. That war continues. Palestinians, in particular, must ponder over Hamas terrorists masquerading as fighting for them — over 34,000 Palestinians have perished in this Hamas-originated violence, besides the once-bustling Gaza Strip and portions of the West Bank having been razed to the ground.

Just recently, in a surprise act, Iran, otherwise known for its traditional and deep enmity of Zionist Israel, also fired hundreds of cruise missiles and drones at some military targets in Israel. Iran’s kinetic action was the first ever by it and reportedly in retaliation against Israel’s aerial attack on its embassy in Damascus, Syria, which had killed a few of its senior military commanders. However, the actions by both avowed adversaries appears not to escalate prompting some analysts to conclude that apart from a face-saving gesture, it was no more than “shadow boxing” between the two. Israel will not want its nuclear installations being attacked by the Iranians, and the latter too would not risk its under-developed nuclear reactors becoming a convenient target for the formidable Israeli Air Force. Any further escalation taking place in this region would portend great economic distress for the entire world.

As other regional tensions also simmer in many parts of the world, most nations and professional militaries would now be engaged in studying all these conflicts in detail to draw lessons from them, as relevant in their context, do any course corrections needed and prepare for future wars. India too will be no exception in this endeavour.

The first and most resounding lesson is that the UN General Assembly and Security Council are all helpless in imposing any restraint even on any erring nation, barring some sanctions and verbal censure. Ultimately, the world community is divided into two halves, with each nation just looking at its own narrow interests. Second, it is apparent that kinetic conflicts are possible without much notice and thus India should be prepared for all eventualities at all times — a small act can trigger off a major conflagration.

Wars in the current context and even more so in the future will result in humongous devastation and massive collateral damage to both sides — thus these should be only launched with a clear-cut strategic objective in mind. What is in Russian President Vladimir Putin’s mind baffles all. Was it to prevent Ukraine joining Nato, and to ensure that Nato forces do not come to the Russian border, or resurrect the old glory of the erstwhile Soviet Union, or to instal a pro-Russian regime in Kyiv or annex Ukraine’s Mariupol to obtain unhindered access into Sea of Azov? The jury is out to decipher President Putin’s end-objective.

Fourth, these conflicts have clearly brought out the simple yet profound lesson that nations must be prepared to fight for their own security. Notwithstanding any support of military equipment (whether paid for or gratis), no nation will be prepared to “put its boots on the ground” for another. India, ever since Independence, has ensured its security preparedness and combat deployments on its own.

India, however, is more than aware that in case of a conflict involving itself, some nations do impose sanctions as the US had done twice in the 1965 and 1971 operations on India. Thus, self-sufficiency in military equipment, military platforms and critical ammunition supplies is vital. In the same breath, it must be said India’s military is heavily dependent on Russia for its military supplies, importing nearly 65 per cent of its requirements. This glaring drawback must be addressed on a war footing by the government by diversifying its sources of supply and improving indigenisation by ensuring genuine public and private sector cooperation and assistance of foreign defence equipment manufacturers to “make in India”. Importantly, Iran could prevent oil supplies through the Strait of Hormuz that links the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman, from where 80 per cent of the oil shipped from the Persian Gulf gets transported, including to India. We thus need to make facilities within India to vastly increase our oil reserves.

These conflicts have also glaringly revealed the criticality of information warfare, nuances of hybrid warfare as a vital instrument, employment of drones, swarm warfare, the importance of air defence, and the like. India’s armed forces will do well to study the contours of emerging super technologies for being incorporated in its strategy and employment at the operational and tactical levels. Our armed forces thus need to be fully prepared to fight future wars, confronting newer challenges.