Are US-North Korea talks looming on the horizon?

Much to the relief of the South Korean establishment President Donald Trump, during his state visit to Seoul on November 7-8, has moderated his earlier belligerent stance and urged North Korea to come to the table for talks. South Korean President Moon Jae-in has long been an advocate of starting some talks at any level with the North and affirmed with President Trump at his side that “we again strongly urge the North to stop nuclear and missile provocations and come to negotiations for denuclearisation”. This signals a fundamental shift in President Trump’s position tweeted on October 1 when he had chided secretary of state Rex Tillerson for “wasting time trying to negotiate with the little Rocket Man”.

In the joint press conference in Seoul on November 7, President Trump made several important remarks. He said that it “made sense for North Korea to come to the table to make a deal that is good for the people of North Korea and the people of the world”. He also noted that “we are making a lot of progress on North Korea”, but did not give any details. Improving the atmosphere on the eve of his visit to China he said that President Xi Jinping “really has been very helpful” on North Korea. He expressed his hope
that Russia would also be similarly helpful implying that in his view Russia has not been as helpful as China in applying pressure on North Korea.

It may be noted that after the Putin-Xi summit in Moscow on July 4, 2017, Moscow had proposed a “three-step solution” to resolve the North Korean nuclear and missile crisis. The first step is Beijing’s “double freeze” proposal in which North Korea was to freeze its nuclear and missile testing and the United States was to stop any joint military exercises with South Korea as well as freeze installation of “THAAD”. The second step envisions finalising a peace agreement and denuclearisation negotiations. The final stage would comprise the establishing of a Northeast Asian multilateral security cooperation system and normalisation of North Korea’s relations with the US and Japan.

Addressing the South Korean National Assembly on November 8, President Trump said that North Korea was ruled by a “military cult” with the “deranged belief in the leader’s destiny to rule as parent-protector over a conquered Korean peninsula and an enslaved Korean people”. President Trump urged Kim Jong-un to give up his country’s nuclear arsenal and warned: “Do not underestimate us. Do not try us.”

President Trump sought sustained pressure from the international community over North Korea and said “we call on every responsible nation, including China and Russia, to demand that the North Korean regime end its nuclear weapons and its missile programmes and to live in peace.”

President Moon Jae-in declared that the two Presidents had “reconfirmed the strategy to apply maximum pressure and sanctions until North Korea gives up its nuclear programme and agrees to serious talks.”

The two-day visit of President Trump was the first state visit of a US President to South Korea in 25 years. South Korea laid on the red carpet and welcomed President Trump and his entourage with considerable enthusiasm. South Korea met the expectations of President Trump to buy US military equipment and in the joint press conference President Trump observed that “South Korea will be ordering billions of dollars of (military) equipment — for us it means jobs, it means reducing our trade deficit with South Korea.” South Korea made a public commitment to purchase more strategic arms from the US such as surveillance equipment and a nuclear-powered submarine.

In a significant move to improve South Korea’s own military deterrence and reduce the reliance on US assets, Presidents Trump and Moon agreed to lift the limit on the maximum weight of warheads to be mounted on South Korean ballistic missiles.

Earlier in Tokyo President Trump had continued his tough rhetoric towards North Korea declaring that the US and its allies were prepared to defend freedom and “no dictator should underestimate US resolve”.

The core of President Trump’s message on his ongoing East Asian trip is to convince his interlocutors that the world was running out of time if denuclearisation of Korean peninsula was to be achieved.

In deft diplomatic moves to soften South Korea’s stance prior to President Trump’s visit, China agreed for renewal of a bilateral currency swap arrangement, resumption of defence ministers’ talks and China’s lifting of restrictions on tour packages to South Korea. On October 30, South Korea’s foreign ministry and China’s foreign ministry in separate statements announced that the two countries were working to resolve their diplomatic dispute over the deployment of US missile defence system THAAD. The ground is being prepared also for the summit between Presidents of Korea and China at the time of APEC Summit in Vietnam on November 10-11, 2017.

Commenting on the restoration of normal ties between ROK and China, the South Korean analysts have observed that President Moon has conveyed a policy of “Three Nos” to China:

• No deployment of additional THAAD batteries on South Korean soil,
• No South Korean participation in US’ missile defence network and
• No trilateral military alliance with the US and Japan.

The stated assurance of South Korean non-participation in US’ missile defence network against China and Russia is noteworthy. While South Korea relies on the US for its own security against North Korea, it is not willing to participate in US’ defences against its future potential adversary China.

Overtime President Trump’s assertions over North Korean nuclear programme have changed fundamentally. While his earlier tweets made a commitment that North Korea will not be allowed to develop capacity for a nuclear strike on continental US now the rhetoric is that any attack by North Korea on the US or its allies will invite massive retaliation. During his visit to South Korea, both Presidents Trump and Moon have again offered unconditional talks to the “Rocket Man”. While in East Asia, President Trump refrained from making personally insulting remarks against the North Korean supremo. Kim Jung-un also showed restraint and North Korea has not launched any missile since September 15. Perhaps ground is now being prepared for commencement of serious talks between the US and North Korea.

The writer is a retired ambassador