:: Opinion

Reading between the Assembly poll results

By Arun Nehru

Oct 25 : The election results in the three states of Maharashtra, Haryana and Arunachal Pradesh hold implications for the future. The three states together have amongst them 60 Lok Sabha seats of which the Congress currently holds more than 40. But following the Assembly election results, they are like to struggle to win even 35-40 seats!

A fractured verdict helped the Congress-Nationalist Congress Party win Maharashtra with 37 per cent. Together, the Bharatiya Janata Party-Shiv Sena, the Third Front, the Bahujan Samaj Party, Prakash Ambedkar and the Independents, have 63 per cent of the vote.

Haryana results for the Congress are a disaster, with just 40 out of 90 seats, while the Indian National Lok Dal (INLD) has made a spectacular comeback. "Real estate" magic, in terms of Special Economic Zones and the builder lobby, may have raised a small fortune but the political edge has gone. Horse-trading may result in government formation but the Congress Party and Rahul Gandhi have much to do before the next elections in the state. In Arunachal Pradesh, the All-India Trinamul Congress made a spectacular debut though all concerned may well remember that numbers are irrelevant in Arunachal Pradesh — all that the MLAs need is an "option".

Political "accidents" cannot be predicted. At the risk of being repetitive, I can only emphasise this and ask all those in governance today to study political events over the last three decades and act with restraint and maturity. The ruling party, the Opposition and individual leaders cannot ignore the tide of public opinion. Fortunately for those in governance, an alert, unbiased media (loyal media only causes political damage) highlights certain issues. Corrective action can be initiated once facts are in the public domain.

There are issues big and small and political longevity has everything to do with "credibility". Over the next decade, as the economy grows, India will be propelled to superpower status. We will witness a sharp increase in the assets of our business community and those in governance (all three wings — the executive, the legislature and the judiciary) will face greater scrutiny and accountability. Can anyone prevent political "accidents" and exposes? Can anyone control the entire media? Can anyone take public opinion for granted?

Land scams due to acquisition, change of usage norms, the nexus between the political fraternity and the builders have deprived many in the urban and rural areas of their assets. We have seen vicious reactions to this in many states and this will intensify as the "asset value" of political families have, over the past decade, become a matter of serious concern.

Excessive greed and asset accumulation by a few can cause severe complications for the United Progressive Alliance (UPA) government. Events in Andhra Pradesh indicate the challenges which a political party may face when political priorities are determined by monetary power and influence.

It is tragic that many MPs and MLAs have huge business interests. This is also true in states like Karnataka where the mining lobby exerts a lot of influence. Look at the controversy that erupted due to land acquisition in West Bengal, Goa, Maharashtra, Jharkhand and Chandigarh. But is the position any different in other states like Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan or Haryana?

Probe against Opposition leaders by central agencies will have little credibility. Recent media reports on the inquiries initiated against Punjab governor S.F. Rodrigues for land acquisitions and allotments by the Central Vigilance Commission and the Central Bureau of Investigation have been countered by Mr Rodrigues by naming Union ministers Ambika Soni and P.K. Bansal. Facts of the case will be totally lost as allegations and counter-allegations are being traded on both sides.

The public reaction will be adverse as the public’s general perception is that politicians and their families are making huge financial gains from land allocated at "favourable" prices for trusts, schools and other social purposes. Sadly this is a reality that cuts across party lines.

WE HAVE a war with words with China and a great deal is taking place on our borders. In all these situations those concerned should protect their national interests.

There are few things which cannot be resolved by discussions. Media frenzy in a free society is not subject to government control but it is important for government officials at all levels to speak in measured tones.

China and India have a decisive role to play in the Group of Twenty talks. Both also have significant representation in global decision-making forums and both have to act with restraint on security issues.

The relevance of China and India in the global community is based on our economic strength and a gross domestic product growth far in excess of the developed world for over two decades is bridging the economic gap between the West and the East.

We are witnessing a decisive change in global trade. According to several think-tanks, in the next decade there will be a shift of 10 per cent in consumption pattern from the West to the East. This is already happening and the gap may well close much earlier as both China and India have saving rates of 30-35 per cent.

Change is never easy and many live in denial about shifting realities. But for us what is necessary is a peaceful transition to the new economic reality.

In this process we must encourage cross investments and do everything possible to create a positive atmosphere.

There is no logic or gain from tension on security issues and clearly in a departure from the Cold War days there is really no support, either political or economic, for those who indulge in disruptive activities.

We have benefited from globalisation as have the Chinese who export close to 80 per cent of their production. It is in our interest that the early signs of recovery in the Western world consolidates into a positive trend for the future.

In all these situations, it makes very little sense for any country to have senseless conflicts and to invite a negative reaction from the global community.

Arun Nehru is a former Union minister