:: Shekhar Bhatia

When tulips die and fish survive

Shekhar Bhatia

April.3 : Disaster stories always attract readers. But in my years in journalism if a reporter suggested a story on global warming, there would be a collective yawn in the newsroom. Till we are convinced that the disaster is imminent, we do not bother. I was therefore surprised at the response to Earth Hour in India, and that too in a city like Delhi where people are by and large cynical about candle-light protests.

Journalists have their own benchmark for disaster stories. They divide these into two kinds: the "good" and "bad" disaster story. Last year (or was it the year before?) there were reports that mangoes in India were becoming less succulent because of climate change — a combination of unseasonable rain and not enough summer heat. That was a "good" disaster story — something immediate because it affects our lives, and will definitely be read.

Take another climate-related story: A government study says the Gangotri glacier in the Himalayas, the source of water for the perennial Ganga, "is retreating at a speed of about 30 metres every year". If global warming continues, the glacier will melt rapidly, releasing large volumes of water. And once this source begins drying, there will be the inevitable drought. If you haven’t read this in the papers, it’s because it is a "bad" disaster story: it can happen, might well happen, but perhaps in a 100 years — too distant a timeframe.

I have my own take on this — a disaster story of sorts. It is climate-related, and another reason why I switched off lights last Saturday.

We have a patch of green around our house in Delhi, a patch I proudly call my garden and where I plant seasonal flowers every winter, and then wait patiently for them to bloom in March. In my more adventurous moments I have even planted tulips, and to my surprise many bloomed.

Last year a friend brought me expensive tulip bulbs from Turkey. I planted the bulbs in October and they should have blossomed mid-March. Some did, but in February the rest just withered away. The same with the iris: a few bloomed in early February, and that was it. I look at the remaining plants every morning. They are alive, green and fresh, but there’s no sign of a flower. The man in the nursery said the weather this year has not been good for flowers.

I checked on the Internet and it seems rhododendrons were in full bloom up in the hills in Mussorie two months early. The flowers normally bloom in late February or the first week of March but, according to local biologists, they had bloomed in January "because of global warming".

In Tokyo, cherry blossoms have appeared five days ahead of schedule and climate change experts say it reflects steadily rising global temperatures. Recent research by the US National Science Foundation has found that gases from car emissions are preventing flowers from attracting bees and insects for pollination.

I am not a climatologist. I am just an accidental gardener who enjoys his little patch of green and looks forward to winter months in Delhi. And so to my second question: do milder winters signal a change in weather patterns?

In fact, the last two years in north India have been unusual: a long winter, followed by a surprisingly cool summer, a great monsoon and then this meek, disappointing winter. "What happened to Delhi’s winter?" asked a newspaper headline. I have a small outdoor pond in which I keep half-a-dozen carp. Every winter the fish die because they cannot survive the cold. This year, because the winter was mild, I can see two playing merrily in the water.

The Met department said the erratic weather had nothing to do with global warming or climate change and that it was because of "westerly" disturbance or some "anomaly" in the Indian Ocean. I have no reason not to believe them. All I am saying is the flowers bloomed early, the winter was short and mild and the fish survived.

Steven Chu won the Nobel Prize for physics; President Barack Obama has appointed him his energy secretary. Mr Chu is renowned for his work on clean energy and a firm believer in the dangers of climate change. In his first interview after taking office he painted a frightening scenario for America if it did not act to slow the advance of global warming: "We’re looking at a scenario where there’s no more agriculture in California", he told the Los Angeles Times. "I don’t think the American public has gripped in its gut what could happen".

Mr Chu is an eminent scientist and knows what he is talking about. He says there is 50 per cent chance that the average temperature will rise by 3 degrees Celsius this century. Just 3 degrees doesn’t seem much unless you know that the temperature difference between the Ice Age and the earth today is only 5 degrees Celsius.

Scientists say that all glaciers will melt in 50 years if we do not bring down the level of carbon dioxide in the air. A Reuters report on a Jadavpur University study says "rising sea levels are causing salt water to flow into India’s biggest river, threatening its ecosystem and turning vast farmlands barren in the country’s east". Environmental experts at a recent conference in Copenhagen said that sea levels "are rising almost twice as fast" as forecast by the UN just two years ago. Try and visualise this: by the year 2100, in the life of your grandchildren, sea levels will rise by 50 cm to 100 cm.

These predictions are not difficult to grasp. The point is whether you believe in them. Last Saturday, millions of people around the world switched off their lights to focus attention on environmental issues. Switching off lights for an hour once a year will not make a big difference in energy savings, or carbon dioxide levels in the air. But it’s a symbol of our commitment, a call to address the problem before it’s too late.

Shekhar Bhatia can be contacted at shekhar.bhatia@gmail.com