:: Govind Talwalkar

Ominous rise of regional parties

Govind Talwalkar

March.31 : Two weeks after this column, the first phase of voting in Lok Sabha elections would begin. In the last two Lok Sabha elections at least two national parties, or the fronts headed by them, were ahead in the fray.

Sadly, this time the two national parties are considerably weakened and would be fighting with various regional parties.

The Congress goes to poll at a time when it holds no power in almost all of north India. Barring Rajasthan and Delhi it is in Opposition in most of the states. In Bihar and West Bengal it has been insignificant for more than two decades. In the south, except for Andhra Pradesh it has pitiable existence. In Maharashtra it is in power because it had joined hands with the National Congress Party (NCP). Even then the hawks in both these parties were talking of going alone in the Lok Sabha elections, but better sense prevailed. Same was the case with the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and Shiv Sena in Maharashtra. But ultimately they also came together. However, if one goes by the history of these four in Maharashtra, one cannot be sure of their solidarity at the time of polls.

Like the Congress, the position of the BJP is no better. It wields power in Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat and Karnataka. In most populous north Indian states, i.e. Uttar Pradesh and Bihar, the BJP is in a weak position. It is no longer in coalition with Navin Patnaik in Orissa. In the Northeast, the political situation has always been fluid.

The Congress and the BJP have no option but to have adjustments with one or the other regional party. This has happened before but this time neither is operating from the position of strength.

Among the regional parties the most stable or steadfast are the Dravida Munnettra Kazhagam (DMK) and All-India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK). Though the Congress as well as the BJP had an understanding with the DMK and the AIADMK at one time or another, both the national parties have not been successful in increasing their strength. West Bengal has been out of bounds for the Congress for more than two decades, however, some observers predict that this time the Communist Party of India- Marxist (CPI-M) might lose more seats than anticipated.

Before the election schedule was announced, the Congress made it clear that it would not have any accommodation with the constituents of the United Progressive Alliance (UPA) on national basis. This allowed those parties to have seat-sharing arrangements as per their convenience. But this has serious repercussions for the Congress in Bihar. Lalu Prasad Yadav, who is on a war path, has declared to contest even the seats given to the Congress by him, along with Ram Vilas Paswan. Those parties which were constituents of the UPA might join hands with the Congress after the elections but they might demand a heavy price.

In Uttar Pradesh, Mayawati has brushed aside all the parties and would contest all the seats. The CPI(M) leadership, which was keen to form a Third Front, was banking on Ms Mayawati, but she along with J. Jayalalithaa would decide about any alliance after the elections, thus keeping options open for bargaining.

CPI(M) general-secretary Prakash Karat has a long-standing desire to form a Third Front against the Congress as well as the BJP. He and his party colleagues seem to be confident that both these national parties with their respective fronts would be defeated and the Third Front would come to power at the Centre. CPI(M) wants the Third Front to fight the Congress and the BJP. According to it, both these parties are stooges of the capitalists and the US and on top of that the BJP is communal.

Though the CPI(M) government in West Bengal was welcoming foreign capital including that from the US, but this option is not available to other parties. Also, CPI(M) has no objection to align itself with N. Chandrababu Naidu and Mr Navin Patnaik who were earlier with the BJP. Both welcomed and gave concessions to foreign investors and Indian capitalists. Mr Chandrababu Naidu used to flaunt certificates by American investors. But because they were against the Congress and are now divorced from the BJP, they have been embraced by Mr Karat.

This game of "non-Congressism" is not new, and in this CPI(M) cannot claim originality. This game was played at the state level in 1967 and at the Centre after the Emergency. But it failed miserably on both levels. The Janata experiment had the backdrop of national struggle but even then it failed to bind the constituent parties. When the Janata Party was in disarray, Charan Singh fell an easy prey to Sanjay Gandhi’s tactics, made a fool of himself and Indira Gandhi bounced back with a solid majority.

V.P. Singh also was fired up by the illusive doctrine of "non-Congressim" and formed a government with tacit backing from the BJP, only to lose when the latter withdrew support. Thus, even if the Third Front succeeds in getting power this time, it would not last long enough for Mr Karat to bring in revolutionary changes.

So with all these parties in disarray we go to the polls. But strangely this time, when prospects of all the parties are uncertain, there are several aspirants for prime ministership. L.K. Advani was the first to announce his candidature as Prime Minister very early, followed by several others.

After the election results are out there is bound to be great deal of horse-trading and new alliances will be forged. Thus the franchise would be much more fractured than it is at present. At the same time, domination of the regional parties might spell disaster. These regional parties are only concerned about regional interests. Their parochialism might jeopardise national interest and harm international relations.

In 1967 no party had clear mandate in various states and though the Congress had clear mandate in Haryana, it was plagued with dissension. But that was on the state level. Now if such a situation arises after the Lok Sabha elections at the Centre, the blow would be terrible.

The present financial crisis is not expected to last long. When the world economy recovers and we do not have a stable administration at the Centre we would not be able to gain from the recovery and whatever gains we have made so far might be lost.

It is unfortunate that when we are constantly threatened by internal and external terrorists we might have a government which would have uncertain existence. For this sad state of affairs it’s not the regional parties but the Congress and the BJP, which claim to be national parties, that are solely responsible. They failed to be in tune with the changing times.