:: Govind Talwalkar

Obama is not so charismatic after all

Govind Talwalkar

Oct.13 : The President of United States, Barack Obama, is confident that he can carry everything and anything with him because of his extraordinary popularity and charisma. But recent events in the US and abroad have proved that there are limits to his charisma.

This was evident when the Olympic Committee on October 2 rejected the application of Chicago as a venue for the 2016 Olympics. Mr Obama and his wife personally advocated Chicago’s claim, but they failed miserably — Chicago received only 18 votes out of 94. They failed because Mr Obama, as is his wont, did not attend to the details and believed that emphasising generalities and soaring rhetoric would do the magic.

On the first day of his assuming office Mr Obama issued an order to close down the most hated Guantanamo prison, though he and his advisers had no detailed plan. Now he finds that practically no nation is willing to accept these prisoners and even the state administrations have opposed it. Therefore, the hated facility would not be closed by next January, as promised.

Mr Obama inherited the financial collapse and housing bubble. The stimulus plan which he approved was a stop-gap arrangement. It served its limited purpose — which was to save the banking and automobile sectors. But soon it was found that the banks saved the amount which they had received for future calamities and did not lend. The American auto companies are beyond redemption and so they have closed down some of their outlets and cut down on the workload. There is no perceptible improvement on the housing front either. With rising unemployment, more and more people are losing their houses.

When the stimulus plan was announced, Mr Obama confidently predicted that the plan would generate more and more jobs and the unemployment rate would not increase beyond eight per cent. But it is touching 9.5 per cent right now and is expected to go up to 10 per cent or even more.

The stock markets have recovered, somewhat. But the job prospects are not reassuring. Large number of jobs are created by the private sector and not by the government, and any administration has to adopt policies keeping that in mind. Instead, the still vague healthcare bills are sure to increase taxes, even on small enterprises, and this is holding up investment and increasing uncertainty.

The long debates on healthcare measures in both the Houses of the Congress have exposed the disunity in the Democratic Party and also revealed the defective strategy of the President. He should have laid down clear guidelines and told the leaders of his party what exactly he wanted to achieve. Instead, he asked the Congress to come up with a plan. That is why there are three different bills.

It is true that the Republicans have no health plan of their own and are playing a negative role. The latest senate committee bill will go through several changes and would have to be discussed on the floor. Then the House and senate committees would jointly discuss the bills and would have to arrive at a compromise. This is a long process, and ultimately the bill that will emerge will be a very mild one and the party in power would be able to show that it has made some progress.

It would not fulfil Mr Obama’s promise of giving health insurance to all American citizens as more than 20 million would be left without any coverage. Recently, the PBS channel had a programme showing how Netherlands conducts its healthcare plan. The country has succeeded in reducing healthcare costs and improving efficiency. Mr Obama and his party colleagues have berated insurance companies and the Republicans, and they surely deserve blame. But both the parties, because of their vested interests, avoid taking some necessary actions.

While the Republicans are beholden to the insurance and drug companies, the Democrats do not want to disturb the trial lawyers who indulge in frivolous lawsuits. The Democratic Party is also dependent on the labour unions. Mr Obama has not compelled the drug companies to allow generic drugs which would bring down the costs, as is done in the Netherlands and other European countries.

The strategy with regard to the war in Afghanistan is yet to be decided. In March 2009, Mr Obama declared that he had a new strategy and so appointed General Stanley McChrystal as a Commander for Afghanistan. But since June he has not bother to have a single one-on-one consultation with the General. Now the Commander has submitted his plan which says that if the goal is to defeat Al Qaeda, the US would have to increase the troop level by 40,000 personnel.

US vice-president Joe Biden is opposed to an increase in the troop level. He says that the US should scale down and leave the actual combat operations to the Afghan Army which should be adequately equipped. Some think that the Taliban is not a serious threat and a deal could be had with it. It is the Al Qaeda which is to be vanquished and this could be possible by helping Pakistan.

The financial aid which the US provided to Pakistan was mostly used to buy arms for use against India. But the US lawmakers and the government refuse to take any precautionary measures. So with new instalments of aid to Pakistan, India would have to take extra precaution.

General McChrystal holds that the situation in Afghanistan is far more serious than was thought of. He is very critical of Hamid Karzai and his government. The widespread fraud and rigging in the elections have made the legitimacy of Mr Karzai’s presidency questionable. Though, that the Obama administration might accept Mr Karzai’s presidency. But it is obvious that the US and North Atlantic Treaty Organisation forces would not receive adequate support from the Karzai government.

The Taliban might not want Al Qaeda in Afghanistan but it has given shelter to it and is a beneficiary. Likewise, the Pakistan government as well as the military might be fighting with Al Qaeda in their own land but they would not help the Americans in their fight with both the insurgent groups in Afghanistan. Because of the strategic depth theory, they want completely subservient administration in the neighbouring state. That is why thousands of the madrasa trainees turning into insurgents migrate to Afghanistan and fight along with the Taliban and Al Qaeda. Even then if the US wants to rely on Pakistan to defeat the insurgents, then she would, eventually, come to grief.