:: Balbir Punj

A mirage of peace shimmers across

Balbir K. Punj

Oct.23 : It is to be hoped that India will not be misled by a series of recent events in Pakistan into believing that the Pakistani Army is now all set to crush the Taliban and that this would, eventually, be the end of terror from across the border. A careful analysis of the situation in Pakistan reveals a different game being played there, one that will only intensify the "terror pressure" on India.

The suicide attacks on the Pakistan Army and police posts by the Pakistani Taliban are no doubt a result of the Pakistan Army’s all-out effort to subdue the Taliban militancy emanating from its northwest tribal areas. After it crushed the Taliban in the Swat Valley, the Pakistan Army is going all out against the Taliban in southern Waziristan in an operation termed Rah-e-Nijat, or, the road to deliverance.

The Pakistani Army’s offensive is stated to involve 30,000 troops that are moving from three directions into the Mehsud-dominated area of Ladha, Makeen and Sararogha. The strategy, as stated, is to isolate the Pakistani Taliban, i.e. the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP).

Reports from Pakistan say that the TTP is now dominated by a triumvirate comprising Hakimullah, Qari Waliur Rehman, the new ameer of the Mehsud tribe who is also considered the brain behind the devastating suicide attacks in Pakistan, and Qari Hussain, the chief instructor of the suicide bombers.

The TTP is said to have a force of 10,000, including a contingent of 2,500 Uzbeks from Afghanistan. Afghan Taliban leader Jalaluddin Haqqani is the link between the Pakistani and Afghan Taliban.

But we should not jump to the conclusion that the two Taliban are working together. The Afghan Taliban are stated to be not too keen on their Pakistani counterparts, which plan and execute attacks on Pakistan’s military establishments.

This situation has to be seen in the background of conflicts within Pakistan, in Afghanistan and role the United States-led North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (Nato) forces play in Afghanistan.

The TTP may have fallen foul of the Pakistani Army but not of its Afghan counterpart. In fact, the second suicide attack on the Indian embassy in Kabul on October 8 (that did not succeed) was a joint action of the Pakistani Army and the Afghan Taliban. More such acts can be expected as the Pakistan Army seeks to create fissures in the India-Afghan relationship.

The Pakistan Army is giving critical support to the Afghan Taliban in the hope that one day the US will leave the Kabul regime to its fate and the Army brass in Pakistan will be able to pull the strings in Kabul when the local Taliban return to power. There is a possibility that this can be achieved through a deal with the US.

In fact, many US leaders are now pushing for precisely such a deal, saying that the Afghan Taliban are a sign of local nationalism and that the longer the US stays in Afghanistan, the greater will be the nationalist backlash, making the US even more unpopular — a repeat of what happened to the Russians earlier.

For India, such an outcome would prove to be a diplomatic disaster as it has invested heavily in the success of a democratic regime in Kabul. It is also helping with the construction of the Parliament building in the Afghan capital. This also involves training key administration personnel, setting up power stations and building roads.

But, for Pakistan, such a development would be a big opportunity to enter Afghanistan and use it to target India. And that is why both the civilian administration and Pakistani military are united in driving India out of Afghanistan. That is exactly why the Pakistani Army has launched this attack on its own Taliban terrorists. It’s a campaign to please the US.

The civil and military establishments in Islamabad are also aligning their policies in a bid to ensure that the country gets the lifeline promised by the US through the economic assistance of $7.5 billion. To get this aid, the Pakistani Army has to prove that it is serious in its efforts to destroy all terrorist organisations.

The aid legislation in the US Congress has led to the Kerry-Lugar rider being attached to it. The rider insists that the administration certify that Pakistan has acted to curb Al Qaeda, the Taliban and other associated terror groups, and that it has disabled their ability to launch cross-border attacks on neighbouring countries.

Also, if the aid is to be continued, Pakistan should be seen as not being involved in nuclear proliferation activities and that the Pakistani Army is under effective civilian control.

China, the eternal friend of Pakistan, has also begun to flex its muscles, pitching for a shrill protest at Prime Minister Manmohan Singh’s visit to Arunachal Pradesh and the Dalai Lama’s scheduled visit to this largely Buddhist state of India.

Pakistan Prime Minister Yousaf Raza Gilani and Nepal’s ousted Prime Minister and Maoist leader Prachanda were in Beijing at the same time when China reacted.

New Delhi has recently discovered how China managed to push in over 25,000 unskilled workers, all on business visas, for the various projects it is implementing in India. The Union home ministry has taken steps, alebit late, to stem this tide. It is admitted that the deception was made possible by the Indian Marxists’ influence on the previous United Progressive Alliance government.

The convergence of several elements against India should be widely noticed in the developing situation in Pakistan and Afghanistan.

This would enable India to hold on to a proper perspective in shaping its policy to contain this threat instead of harbouring false hopes that Pakistan wishes to build bridges of peace across the border.

Anything could happen in Pakistan. That includes a conclusion in Washington that a military dictatorship is a better deal in Islamabad rather than a tottering civilian administration, and a moderate Taliban in Afghanistan is preferred over a weak government in Kabul that perpetually needs foreign troops to remain in power.

Balbir K. Punj can be contacted at punjbk@gmail.com