:: Arun Nehru

Winner in Bihar, UP will take it all

By Arun Nehru

Mar 29 : I have little doubt that we are heading for a very stable coalition government. If we look at the last two decades of coalition governance we will observe that in the first 10 years we witnessed a great deal of confusion and three governments, but the next 10 years resulted in stable formations.

Both the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) and the United Progressive Alliance (UPA) completed their terms and now we are looking at another five years of coalition governance. The "best" is yet to come.

Adverse situations bring the best of leadership skills and I believe that with a favourable demographic pattern, bursting with talent in every discipline, this is our opportunity to scale new heights.

I am keeping the charts unchanged for this week although I must admit that there are definite shifts in voter preferences, but I need further confirmation before I can make changes in the charts.

Let us look at a few states where decisive trends are yet to surface.

Uttar Pradesh

The field is wide open and the basic fight is between the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) and the Samajwadi Party (SP), but I see a small advantage both for the Congress and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). The failure of the SP-Congress alliance may help the BSP, but in a four-cornered fight in over 40 seats there will be surprises and both the Congress and the BJP can win a few more seats.

Minority votes may swing towards the Congress where they have a chance of victory and they can win 10-12 seats. The general perception is that the Congress, though well short of a majority, will still be ahead of the BJP and has better chance of adding alliance partners. Uttar Pradesh may well produce a surprise verdict.

bihar/jharkhand

The Janata Dal (United) is way ahead but faces a determined challenge from the Rashtriya Janata Dal and the Lok Janshakti Party in Bihar. Despite the chaotic situation in each party I don’t see many changes in the charts.

However, the situation in Jharkhand is very different and the decision of the Congress, Jharkhand Mukti Morcha and RJD to fight each other may result in a sweep situation for the BJP-JD(U) combine. The anti-incumbency trends are against the messy governance by the Congress and the JMM and the failure to have a seat sharing agreement gives the advantage to the BJP.

tamil nadu/andhra pradesh

We may see a sweep situation in favour of the All-India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK) with many fringe parties joining its combine.

In Andhra Pradesh, the voting pattern in all three areas of the state may see changes in the immediate future. Telengana with 14 seats shows the Telangana Rashtra Samithi (TRS), Telugu Desam (TD) and Left ahead of the Congress; the coastal districts see a three-way fight between the Congress, TD and Praja Rajyam; and in Rayalseema, the Congress is ahead of the TD. A very mixed picture but votes may finally polarise towards either the Congress or the TD-TRS combine.

In fact, the picture in 2009 may not be very different when compared to 2004 and what will change are alliance partners as this will have no impact on governance patterns.

The Third Front will have to keep their options open and the Left parties, with reduced numbers, may well find themselves isolated as few if any can afford economic isolation.

The Left parties will have problems of their own and will find a resurgent Mamata Banerjee challenging them in the 2011 Assembly polls in West Bengal. Only an "economic" miracle can save the Left in West Bengal and Kerala. I cannot see any space for the Third Front unless the Congress and the BJP drop below 270 seats and I don’t think this is going to happen in 2009. Political trends do not change in a hurry, but often the "fatigue" factor comes into play when a governance system is at its peak.

Coalition governance has been around for two decades but will it go beyond another 10 years? I think change is in the air and either the Congress or the BJP will consolidate in the future. The challenge before both parties would be to identify leaders for the future at the national level.

The key to success will also lie in the 120 seats in Uttar Pradesh and Bihar and the party which can win 50 per

cent of the seats in these states will govern India.

Arun Nehru is a former Union minister