:: Arun Nehru

Voters will reward good governance

By Arun Nehru

APR 26 : The first and second phases of polling are over and considering the fact that it included disturbed areas with Naxalite activity, the Election Commission and security forces have done well.

Sadly, all political parties and important leaders play the minority/majority card and the interlinked issue of security. Harsh words were exchanged and all alliances, past and present, were ignored as each political party tried to earn debating points from the voting public. There are no innocents in this political arena, including the "loyal" media attached to each political interest.

However, it is sad to see extreme elements on all sides gaining encouragement and a swing is "visible" which can make a big difference in marginal seats.

We see this happening in Bihar, where Lalu Prasad Yadav and the Rashtriya Janata Dal are getting hysterical as they lose ground to Bihar chief minister Nitish Kumar and the Janata Dal-United/BJP and in Uttar Pradesh where the BJP may gain as the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) loses some upper caste support after the action taken on Varun Gandhi under the National Security Act (NSA).

There is also a chance of the BSP and the Congress gaining minority votes at the cost of the Samajwadi Party. And then there’s the Kalyan Singh factor and the internal turmoil of Muslim leaders in the Samajwadi Party. Though Bihar trends are clear, in Uttar Pradesh things are fluid.

I don’t believe in the blame game but it would be fair to state the entire debate on caste and religion and even security issues pertain to minority and majority vote-banks and this has little to do with India’s objective of emerging as a political and economic superpower.

The four groups given in the table reflect the reality of the present situation but all this can change. Political arithmetic is complicated and we have seen political parties and individual leaders play "musical chairs" on several occasions.

As we enter the last stretch, there are three distinct possibilities of government formation:

First, the Congress as the single largest party can form the government with the Left and the SP, LJP and RLD along with the AIADMK and the PMK.

Secondly, the BJP, if it secures 150 seats or more, can form a government with the LJP and the SP. But the Left/PDP/MIM group will not support it.

The third possibility is of the Left forging a non-Congress/BJP government by drawing away some allies of the Congress and the BJP.

I feel that the Congress will be the favourites to form a coalition unless their numbers drop below 140 seats. I firmly believe that we are heading for a stable government with a very strong Opposition.

We cannot afford confusion and chaos and I think the voting public will think seriously and considering we have millions of "new voters", a swing of one-two per cent can dramatically change the situation.

I still see both the Congress and the BJP getting close to 300 seats between them. Either of them could form a stable government and the floating vote may stabilise in favour of either party. In states where both are in contention we may see the biggest changes in the next few weeks.

A swing of 20 seats in either direction can change the existing power equations and I think this may well happen as the voter is generally ahead of most political parties.

I find a distinct change in the mood of the electorate as several chief ministers returned to power beating anti-incumbency trends. There is a premium on integrity and good governance based on stability. Narendra Modi and Sheila Dikshit won a third term, Shivraj Singh Chauhan and Raman Singh won a second term and the BSP and the BJP both won majority in Uttar Pradesh and Karnataka. The stability factor came to play here, so can Lok Sabha elections be any different?

Orissa and Andhra Pradesh also have Assembly elections and we have an interesting situation developing in both states.

Naveen Patnaik and the BJD have severed relations with the BJP and without a doubt the Congress will benefit from this split. Also, Mr Patnaik may not get a majority on his own in the Assembly elections and may need the support of the Congress to be the Chief Minister for a record third term. But if he wins 10 seats in the Lok Sabha elections, he could extend support to the Congress and get a Cabinet minister and a minister of state in the bargain. Things will be quite different if he wins a majority on his own in the Assembly elections. Then his options at the Centre would remain open.

The situation in Andhra Pradesh is different in theory but in a hung Assembly the Congress may well decide to make an agreement with the Telangana Rashtra Samithi on Telangana.

Here too the final figures will determine the party position for the future.

The best policy for all parties is to keep silent on "alliances".

Arun Nehru is a former Union Minister