:: Arun Nehru

UP key to future Congress majority

By Arun Nehru

May 24 : The electoral battle is over and after two decades of coalition politics we are seeing the first signs of "consolidation" and, perhaps, a possible return of majority rule after the next two elections. I have written in the past that I could sense "change" in the air as we saw anti-incumbency trends reversed in six Assembly elections. It was very difficult to time or quantify these trends but early signs of voters’ gravitation towards the United Progressive Alliance (UPA) or the National Democratic Alliance (NDA), and away from the Third Front, were present. That’s why a decisive downturn for the Left in West Bengal and Kerala, and for the Samajwadi Party (SP), the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) and the Lok Janashakti Party (LJP) in Uttar Pradesh and Bihar was predicted. But here again the "upside" and the "downside" are difficult to quantify in terms of seats won or lost.

In my opinion the much-maligned "exit polls" did a very good job (NDTV and CNN-IBN) in reading the trends correctly, especially in Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu, towards the end. Clearly, the Congress was gaining at the expense of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP).

Except the voting public, who delivered a decisive verdict in favour of the Congress, everyone, especially the political parties, was confused. We will have a stable government for five years and a "political" auction of assets (Cabinet portfolios) will no longer be necessary amongst coalition partners.

We can all apply the benefit of hindsight and keep speculating on issues which determined the electoral outcome and future prospects of winners and losers in this election. We can also contemplate the shape and size of the Cabinet and the emerging power equations within the new political system. But the hard reality of politics will strike in three months when there will be several byelections (11 seats in Uttar Pradesh alone), and Assembly elections in Haryana and Maharashtra soon after.

In politics, nothing is permanent and the "window of opportunity" can never be taken for granted. As things stand, the Congress has to reciprocate the confidence of the voting public. It should keep the momentum going and form a government with a generous mix of "young" elements. There is little doubt in my mind that the "new" voter (50-60 million) tilted the scale in favour of the Congress. The BJP, still trying to swallow the defeat, will have to resolve its internal conflicts. In the last seven-eight days it has come under intense pressure. Barring Karnataka, Himachal Pradesh and Chhattisgarh, it seems to have lost ground in every state and faces a bleak future.

The Left will fight for its "survival" in West Bengal and so will the RJD and LJP in Bihar. In Uttar Pradesh, the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) and the SP will have to devise a strategy to deal with the Congress. Every state will have a "political" agenda for the immediate future. For example, both the Congress and the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) will have to determine their policy towards each other. As will the Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS), led by Raj Thackeray, which decimated Shiv Sena’s chances. The Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK), All-India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK), and the Congress in Tamil Nadu can no longer ignore the Desiya Murpokku Dravida Kazhagam (DMDK). But what will happen to the Pattali Makkal Katchi (PMK)?

The challenges of the future cannot be ignored. Rahul Gandhi shows both restraint and grace in victory, and has earned his "spurs" this election. The Congress’ performance in Uttar Pradesh is spectacular with 21 seats. It is possible that it was second in another 20 seats! The Congress would be eyeing 40-50 seats in the future and has time to plan and execute its strategy. The BSP and the SP are "wounded" but they both still hold 20 per cent-plus votes in the state and will put up a stiff fight. Even byelections for the 11 seats will be hotly contested. Uttar Pradesh can lead the Congress to a majority if it partially recovers its traditional votebank. Both the BSP and the SP are giving support to the UPA government from outside — a shrewd move to protect their votebank.

Political leaders with a "heavy personal" agenda have a limited capacity to fight political battles as they are weighed down by "excessive assets". Issues of this nature in the Supreme Court cannot be taken lightly and the leaders of the BSP and SP and their friends are very vulnerable.

The Congress’ efforts in Uttar Pradesh will be reflected both in the formation of the government and the party. I have no doubt at all that Mr Rahul Gandhi as general secretary has much to do and will remain focused on Uttar Pradesh. The Congress has won the elections but much has to be done in Bihar, Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh and Orissa in developing the party (combined they account for 100 seats).

Prime Minister Manmohan Singh was a winner and I think the BJP made a grievous error in calling him a "weak" Prime Minister. And after Dr Singh underwent heart surgery, this was seen in very poor taste by the voting public. We can agree or disagree on various political issues but there is no doubt that the Prime Minister has impeccable integrity and his family members have conducted themselves with great dignity.

We have great challenges ahead and security concerns, both internal and external, will dominate the agenda as we have a volatile situation on all our borders.

We are all well aware of the global economic crisis and as we begin the business of governance, let us pay tribute to the voting public for the verdict which makes effective governance possible with a stable majority.

Arun Nehru is a former Union minister