:: Arun Nehru

Trouble for Left in Bengal, Kerala

Arun Nehru

March.8 : The Left parties can get into a very troublesome situation in West Bengal in the upcoming polls.

Last week I had written on the trends within the Left Front and the signals given by the Trinamul Congress victory in rural Nandigram followed by a huge win by 30,000 votes in the Bishnupur Assembly bypoll.

In fact, things can get much worse for the Left Front as their vote share declines by seven per cent.

The electoral alliance between the Trinamul Congress and the Congress may well result in a 28/14 seat distribution. This may end up with the Left losing more than 20 seats in 2009.

Of course, the Left will fight back but hopefully its cadre will not resort to violence as this will result in a total rout.

Clearly, the Election Commission has to play an important role in the state to prevent violence during the elections.

The spotlight is on Mamata Banerjee and the window of opportunity is clearly in her favour. She has a very good understanding of politics, has a reputation for impeccable integrity, shows no fear and like any charismatic leader she leads from the front.

As things stand, she will make gains in the urban and the rural areas of West Bengal.

The Left is also under pressure in Kerala and many a "veteran" may have to retire to give the party a fighting chance in half the seats. The CPI(M) is fighting 14 out of 20 seats and only six MPs may be repeated in Vadakara, Malappuram, Kollam, Kasargod, Kottayam and Alappuzha.

From all accounts the "battle within" the CPI(M) is far from over and candidate selection will not be based on merit alone.

Both in West Bengal and Kerala there is considerable internal dissent and under electoral pressure this can result in serious losses.

We all become wiser in hindsight but as things stand both in West Bengal and Kerala, change is in the "air". To reverse the trend before the Assembly elections, the Left Front will have to do much.

In the situation that could emerge after the polls, the UPA/ Congress number of 226 seats could well have the Left support of 31 MPs and many an Independent and small groups to cross the 270 figure.

At the same time the NDA/BJP could get support from BSP/TDP/TRS/AIADMK/PMK and their number swells from 187 seats to close to 270 seats.

These are possibilities for the future as I cannot see the formation of a Third Front government. The Left will not support the BJP and the TDP/TRS will not support the Congress. The BSP will not be on the same side as the SP but the AIADMK/PMK/allies can travel in any direction if they win a sizeable number of seats in Tamil Nadu.

The political scenario will become clearer as elections draw near towards one group or the other and much will depend on Uttar Pradesh and Tamil Nadu.

Security is also a major issue and I don’t really know how the situation will unfold in the coming weeks.

We have witnessed a tragic set of events as the situation gets out of control in Afghanistan/Pakistan and in Bangladesh. We need to be fully alert on both the western and the eastern borders.

With the world engulfed with the economic crisis I don’t really know if we can depend on the United States, the United Kingdom and their allies to pursue terrorists in Afghanistan or Pakistan.

The attack on the Sri Lankan cricket team in Lahore brings to stark relief the power structures within Pakistan and how the Taliban and other hardline elements are gaining control over it.

The brazen attack with rocket launchers, grenades and automatic weapons took place in the heart of Lahore and not a single terrorist was wounded or killed and none have been arrested so far!

US President Barack Obama is planning to divert 17,000 troops from Iraq to Afghanistan and there is pressure on the government there to deliver results, but it is yet to be seen

whether this will weaken the Taliban and other extremist elements.

Arun Nehru is a former Union minister