:: Arun Nehru

Trends show mood swing in Bihar, UP

By Arun Nehru

May 03 : My assessment is that both the Congress and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) will maintain and perhaps improve upon their 2004 Lok Sabha numbers. I also think that the Left will drop from 60-plus to 35-40 seats and the grand alliance of the Samajwadi Party (SP), the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) and the Lok Janashakti Party (LJP) will drop from 65 to about 30-35 seats. The trends in Bihar and Uttar Pradesh show a change in mood and whilst the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) may improve its tally, both the BJP and the Congress may gain at the expense of the SP. In Bihar, the Janata Dal-United (JD-U) and the BJP seem set to demolish the RJD and the LJP.

Anti-incumbency trends still apply to many states. In Andhra Pradesh, the Congress will struggle but lose seats, and in Orissa, Naveen Patnaik seems destined for a similar future. The Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) in Tamil Nadu is also under threat from the All-India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK) as is the Akali Dal in Punjab where the Congress will make decisive gains.

The situation is very complicated for all three formations (United Progressive Alliance, National Democratic Alliance and the Third Front) and few can predict today the picture that will emerge after results are declared on May 16, 2009.

We still have another two weeks till the final polling date, and I think we have to examine in detail some important issues that will confront the decision-makers in each party.

Let us take the example of West Bengal where the Left is under pressure and can lose 20 seats to the All-India Trinamul Congress (AITC) and the Congress. Assembly elections are due in West Bengal in 2011 when the AITC is likely to be the main challenger to the Left. Along with the Congress it can change the power equation in West Bengal after three decades. The issue is what the AITC will do if the Congress takes the assistance of the Left to form a government at the Centre. I cannot believe that the Left will continue to be rigid and subject the country to economic stagnation and isolation by reviving Cold War arguments and political prejudices. If they do persist with this, they will isolate themselves from potential allies at the Centre.

The main contest will be between the Congress and the BJP for government formation and all regional players and groups, especially the ones who get more than 20 seats, will become major players. The Left (with 36 seats), the SP-RJD-LJP combine (with 32 seats), the AIADMK and the PMK (with 25 seats), the Telugu Desam Party (TDP) and the Telangana Rashtra Samiti (with 22 seats), and the JD-U (with 21 seats) will be the major groups along with the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP), AITC and BJD (with 10 seats) whose sizeable presence in state Assemblies will also play a crucial role in government formation.

The election fever has gripped the nation but we must not ignore important developments on our borders. Events in Pakistan and Afghanistan in the west, Bangladesh and Nepal in the east and the explosive situation in Sri Lanka in the south are all complex situations and there are no simplistic solutions to these "security" issues. Much remains to be done and it would be a good thing if the government and the Opposition were in constant communication on these sensitive issues. We may see an escalation of infiltration from Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (PoK) and the Taliban gain ground in Pakistan. In the next decade securing our borders will be our greatest challenge and we cannot rely on the global community to sort out all our security issues. Events of 26/11 are a clear indicator in this direction. Terror is an act of "war" and we must seriously debate this issue and arrive at a political consensus.

The challenges in the future will be greater and we cannot afford to go from one incident to another hoping that the situation will ease with the global war on terror.

As we enter the last stage of elections, both the Congress and the BJP will fight for additional 10-15 seats which might be the difference between victory and defeat. I sincerely hope that neither group will compromise on reforms and economic matters. The only positive outcome, if any, that can be drawn from the past 10 years of the NDA and the UPA rule is that we have generated growth and our industry leaders have produced a "miracle" and this is something we cannot compromise on in the future. The nuclear deal and increased cooperation with the United States, along with increased economic cooperation with China, is key to our future efforts. We cannot afford to compromise on these issues and if this results in another election after 2009 then it will suit both the Congress and the BJP. The Left and the SP, LJP, RJD cannot lose half their seats and dictate the national agenda. Even coalition politics needs political credibility.

Arun Nehru is a former Union Minister