:: Arun Nehru

Race is an issue when power equation shifts

By Arun Nehru

Jun 07 : The news from Pakistan is not good. It is a strange coincidence that the country becomes belligerent every time it receives monetary and military aid from the United States. Sadly, Pakistan has received both, without the "usual" terms and conditions, as a "reward" to tackle terrorists. As the Pakistan Army took action against the Taliban in the Swat Valley, the Lahore high court released Hafiz Mohammed Saeed, chief of the Jamaat-ud-Dawa and the main accused in the 26/11 Mumbai terror attacks. And coinciding with Saeed’s release came Pakistani Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani’s tirade on Kashmir and India.

We should not be surprised and neither should the US unless it is in denial and refuses to accept that the Pakistan government, the Pakistan Army and their security agencies are all compromised and succumb to Islamic terrorism. Even under pressure, the Pakistan government will speak in "two" voices. But can we not expect little more from the new administration in the US? 26/11 will be repeated and we can expect a great deal of violence from terrorists’ "sleeper cells", just as they are doing in some parts of Pakistan.

Military hardware supplied by the US to Pakistan has always been used against India, including in the three wars. So in a Pakistan that is tormented and torn apart by several terror groups, can it be any different now? India has a strong government in place and whilst we show admirable restraint, the agenda for our security forces is clear. We must also get our legal systems attuned to the reality that terror is an act of "war". We have seen the legal process unfold in both the Parliament attack and Mumbai terror attacks. Is this a satisfactory method of dealing with death and destruction unleashed by terrorists in the country?

The US is bogged down in Iraq and Afghanistan. Their economy continues to be a cause of concern and the Pakistan government and its army are well aware of this. The diffused power base in the US and the power of "lobbyists" in working the system to their favour cannot be ruled out in the future.

The global economic crisis and the 10 per cent unemployment rate in the US and much of the Western world is bringing about a change in attitude. These are difficult times and they will lead governments to initiate "protectionist" measures aimed at both China and India who continue to grow (though at a slow pace). This shift in economic power and political influence will generate changes in attitude, all of which won’t be positive! Extreme right-wing groups and anti-social elements exist in a small measure in every country (India included). But in a situation of economic chaos and uncertainty, they tend to thrive and hardworking and economically well-off "immigrants" are subjected to "racial" abuse. This can come in many forms and we have to act firmly but with restraint, keeping our global objectives in mind. The events in Australia are unfortunate but not unexpected in view of the country’s racial history and policies. It is good to see that the government of Australia is planning to take stern action against the "offenders" and I think this will happen sooner than later!

India has had excellent trade relations with Australia and close to 100,000 Indian students study in there and provide a great deal of revenue. Over the years, India has made every effort to increase trade and commerce in various fields and it would be rather silly to allow these criminal acts to affect the public image of Australia in India. We were literally cheated out of the cricket series in Australia in December 2007 (we watched it live on television) but there was "limited" negative reaction though the decisions were condemned by both the Australian public and the media. Indians citizens living abroad are asserting their "rights" and I am not surprised that we have complaints of "racial" bias from Indians living in the United Kingdom, France and Australia.

India has emerged as a political and economic superpower and this is evident as events unfold in the economic field. With strong fundamentals, the road ahead is clear but we have to contend with "protectionism" both from the US and Europe. The irony is that all the developed countries revert to "socialism" and state control as they settle the "excesses" of their financial systems.

The United Progressive Alliance (UPA) government and Prime Minister Manmohan Singh have rightly indicated their priority of reviving the economy as six per cent GDP growth is very different from 8-9 per cent which we have had over the past four years. Several sectors are reeling under recession and many of our social schemes are getting affected.

The confidence of the Indian electorate was reflected in the election verdict with the stock markets reiterating confidence in the government. Whilst "experts" will find this difficult to understand, the fact is that national pride, confidence and belief in the future prevails over uncertainty and this cannot be "quantified" in time or numbers. We speak of our demographic pattern, we speak of our young men and women, but it is now time to acknowledge that their thinking is beginning to prevail. For the UPA, the electoral verdict is for effective governance.

The Congress has lots to do as it expands its base from 200-plus to 250-300 seats, whilst the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) will have to tackle the "shrinkage syndrome" as its tally has come down from 135 seats in 2004 to 115. Its success will greatly depend on its ability to "change" its thinking and reduce its dependence on "external" power centres. As for the Left, in West Bengal and Kerala it will take more than a miracle to save them in the 2011 Assembly elections.

Arun Nehru is a former Union Minister