:: Arun Nehru

Price rise can smash electoral prospects

Arun Nehru

The United Progressive Alliance’s (UPA) honeymoon is over. Though it will take some time to fully grasp the effects of the poor monsoon on our economy, the UPA government’s skill in managing this crisis will be crucial for its political future. We will, no doubt, have a fair amount of doom and gloom as everyone with a negative bent of mind will tend to exaggerate the situation.

Current indications are that we may witness a drop in Gross Domestic Product from 6.5 per cent to six per cent. Also, the agriculture output will decrease by five per cent and trigger shortages (many of them artificial). Increase in the prices of essential commodities is inevitable given the market forces of supply and demand that prevail in the country. The government must order action against hoarders and black marketers and use every rule and law in the book to punish the culprits.

We have dealt with drought before and we must deal with it now and reduce the burden on the farming community, with a special focus on marginal farmers. Increased expenditure in the drought-affected areas is inevitable and will cause greater strain on our resources. There will be hundreds of other big and small issues and clearly it is time for the government to swing into action.

We could hope to have better rainfall in the month of August and September but certain media reports indicate that the predictions from the US Climate Centre are not very good on the El Nino effect. I wonder why we cannot have an accurate prediction of monsoons from our meteorological department. Most media reports are patchy as the data given to them by the meteorological department is rather vague.

We have had two super harvests and the government, in theory, has a large stock of foodgrains, so we should not face shortage of either rice or wheat. But it will take a great deal of expertise on the government’s part to ensure timely release of wheat and rice to prevent price rise. Considering our comfortable position in foreign exchange, edible oil and any other food products can be imported. Union agriculture minister, Sharad Pawar, has much to do and hopefully, the game of cricket is not going to be his priority in 2009!

Whenever we face a crisis, we start thinking of possible solutions but the government and, perhaps, citizens too must also start acting in a responsible manner. Everyone should make an effort to preserve water and initiate cost-effective measures in order to avoid wastage in industries, agriculture and homes. Water harvesting will help greatly. We need not wait for a full-blown crisis to take corrective action, but sadly few act in time. When it comes to handling a crisis, we are quite efficient. But there is a difference in dealing with a situation with an action plan based on accurate information and reacting in panic once a crisis strikes.

This issue cuts across political lines as the Congress Party, the Bharatiya Janata Party, the Left and regional parties are all in power is various state governments. The issues related to the delay in monsoons and drought cover every facet of our daily existence and the media coverage will highlight the price rise on an hourly basis. The public will be watching the events very closely and these can make or break politicians’ reputation depending on how they handle the crisis. Politics, for the next couple of months, will take a "vacation" and we must wish both, the Centre and the states governments, well as they deal with this crisis.

THE H1N1 or the swine flu crisis is beginning to unfold and I think the government has done well in controlling the initial situation. But things can get worse in winter. One can see a great deal of activity in the United States, United Kingdom and many countries in the world. There is little need to panic and in all probability there will be enough medicines available both in the government and public hospitals to deal with the situation.

We have to monitor events on a daily basis. It is good to see that the media, both print and electronic, has highlighted and created awareness about swine flu. A certain degree of panic has been created in Pune and Mumbai. A clear picture is necessary to prevent identical reaction in other cities. The fact is that we have not seen this kind of reaction anywhere in the world, even in places where the number of people affected with swine flu goes into thousands.

The Shopian rape and murder case has been transferred to the Central Bureau of Investigation as is the false encounter case in Dehra Dun where over a dozen policemen participated in the killing. Hopefully, in both cases the culprits will be convicted at the earliest and given the maximum sentence. The incident of "fake encounter" in Manipur also deserves immediate attention. It is good to see a great deal of accountability surfacing in the cases of insurgency in the country.

Insurgency is never easy to handle and prolonged tenure of paramilitary forces will lead to physical and mental fatigue. Hopefully, all procedures in this regard are being followed and immediate action must be taken when excesses take place. The images on television add little credit to the Manipur chief minister Ibobi Singh or his government. There needs to be a sense of urgency in dealing with the situation in the state.

Arun Nehru is a former Union minister