:: Arun Nehru

Poll test for Rahul, Modi, Mayawati

By Arun Nehru

Mar 22 : We see intensive activity on the alliance front. However, the speculations in the media have little relation to reality as the true picture of alliances will only crystallise after the counting is over. Only then will parties be aware of the seats that are available for political arithmetic and government formation. As of now, the position is fluid as there are far too many possibilities and "winners" can become "losers".

The Congress and the Bharatiya Janata Party should get 270-290 seats between them and it is the United Progressive Alliance or the National Democratic Alliance that should ideally form the next coalition government. But can we write off the third front if three or four parties who get around 150 seats form a united front and agree on a common leader?

And what would happen if the BJP number falls to 120 seats? I see the Congress ahead of the BJP and the current trend indicates that the BJP is under pressure and this gives better options to regional forces for power-sharing.

Television channels and newspapers are discussing the chances of several top politicians including Sharad Pawar, Mulayam Singh Yadav, Mayawati and J. Jayalalithaa becoming Prime Minister. This may not happen but it reflects the ground reality of coalition politics where political parties and leaders have the power and flexibility of "choice" and each one will align to extract maximum gain in the next government.

We can call this horse-trading if we want but if we look at coalition structures in the rest of the world we find that they are little more than power-sharing agreements driven by a fractured mandate.

Governments are determined by the ballot and when the electoral verdict in terms of vote share does not exceed 25 per cent for either the Congress or the BJP, the signal very clearly is for a coalition structure. This formation will be stable and with time will result in better governance.

While every party is under pressure on alliance pattern and seat selection, the BJP continues to damage its prospects. The fact that the Trinamul Congress, the All-India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam, the Telugu Desam, the Biju Janata Dal and the National Conference (all NDA allies in 2004) have chosen to fight the 2009 elections on their own clearly indicates that they do not wish to alienate the minority vote.

A loss of 10-20 seats in the tally can cause damage to the BJP and this cannot be ruled out if the current chaos continues in the BJP. The politics of Uttar Pradesh and Bihar, with 120 seats between them, is showing interesting trends for the future. The battle for Uttar Pradesh will be between the Bahujan Samaj Party and the Samajwadi Party and as of now no anti-incumbency trend is noticeable against the BSP which is contesting all the 80 seats in the state. The SP is under pressure and it was no surprise that seat negotiations with the Congress failed as the party cannot afford to give away a single seat which has a winning chance. And the Congress cannot agree to contest from a small number of seats.

Though the Congress may contest from 60 seats, its votebank has disappeared over a period of two decades in Uttar Pradesh and Bihar and unless they win 40 out of 120 seats they will not reach the 200-seat tally in the upcoming Lok Sabha elections .

The situation in Bihar is no different and both the Rashtriya Janata Dal and the Lok Janshakti Party are under pressure from the Janata Dal (United)-BJP combination and I would be surprised if the Congress wins a single seat in the state. Uttar Pradesh and Bihar are critical for the Congress and unless they make inroads, things can become very difficult for them at the national level in future elections.

The position is no different for the BJP which continues to shrink in Uttar Pradesh. In Bihar, the JD-U and Nitish Kumar are in control.

No regional party can win an election without a charismatic leader who leads from the front. The same applies for the Congress and the BJP. I think this election will see the emergence of Rahul Gandhi in the Congress and Narendra Modi in the BJP and both have the talent and ability to lead.

There will also be Ms Mayawati who will battle to increase the vote share of the BSP and to establish its position as a credible third force. These three may well be the major players in the political arena.

Arun Nehru is a former Union Minister