:: Arun Nehru

New leaders will emerge after polls

By Arun Nehru

Mar 01 : The stage is set for political "auctions" in the country. Coalitions are about power-sharing arrangements and I think in the next few weeks we may see new alignments emerging as political forces look for relevance and longevity in the immediate future.

Gains and losses in the elections may change when new groups emerge between the UPA and the NDA. Many a party can travel in both directions and much will depend on the "offer" that is being made.

Tamil Nadu is a good example where the DMK/AIADMK/PMK/MDMK can travel in many directions, both at the Centre and in the state. This will happen as soon as voter preferences become clear.

The DMK has been in power for a decade as a member of both the NDA and the UPA and their excessive assets have led to a family feud. The damage is done as the AIADMK and J. Jayalalithaa are gaining ground by the day and the Congress cannot ignore this development. There is change in the air and my feeling is that Ms Jayalalithaa and her allies will sweep the polls.

If it gets the numbers, the AIADMK can travel in any direction and the same possibilities exist for the BSP/SP/TDP/AITC/JD(U)/NCP, or for that matter, any other party.

All of them will try to be a part of the government at the Centre and alliances and agreements will be "flexible" and will depend on the numbers.

The Left parties are heading for electoral losses in West Bengal and Kerala. Though a new crop of leaders (Prakash Karat, Sitaram Yechury and Brinda Karat) have emerged at the Centre in place of Comrade Harkishan Singh Surjeet and Jyoti Basu, the CPI(M) has failed to change things in West Bengal and Kerala. Though the chief minister of West Bengal, Buddhadeb Bhattacharjee, meant well, the downward slide continues after Nandigram thanks to the attitude of party bosses. The charismatic Mamata Banerjee gains and can make inroads in the state by allying with the Congress.

Things are much worse in Kerala with internal strife and chaotic governance and the Left is set to lose in the last Assembly elections. The Congress is on the verge of sweeping the state. Chief minister V.S. Achuthanandan belongs to another "era" and post-elections the party will have little option but to make drastic changes at the helm. Though the Left will drop in numbers compared to last time, it will have 30-40 seats and may play a major role in government formation and will have another opportunity to rectify the situation.

The situation to watch would be after the elections on whether the UPA, especially the Congress, can afford "not" to align with the Left for government formation, and whether they will be able to maintain relations with the Trinamul Congress at the same time.

Elections will held be in mid-April and for the next two weeks we will witness final touches to alliances in the states. We may witness two weeks of relative calm as political parties finalise their alliances, seat distribution and candidates and then we are into a month of hard political activity.

There is no such thing as an easy election and with 100 million new voters, can any party or candidate take anything for granted?

We live in interesting times and "change" is in the air as the global community tries to tackle an unprecedented economic crisis and the balance of power is shifting towards the G -20 from the existing G-8. India has a very vital role to play in the future and the window of opportunity is opening up for a new generation of leaders in all fields.

Every election brings up new MPs and I believe that in these elections, both at the Centre and in the states, we will see the emergence of new leaders for the next decade.

Arun Nehru is a former Union minister