:: Arun Nehru

Left, allies bigger than BJP, Cong

By Arun Nehru

May 10 : A few more days are left for the coalition games to start and right now the picture is very blurred. We will see many twists and turns on our way to government formation soon.

There will be little difference in numbers between the Bharatiya Janata Party-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) and the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance (UPA) but the Left and the regional parties seem to have consolidated as a viable group and will pose a serious challenge to the UPA and NDA.

I had said last week that the best policy for everyone was to keep silent till May 16, when the results will be announced.

The winners in the 2009 elections will be those who are able to maintain or improve upon their tally. In the winners’ category will be the BJP and the Congress, and apart from them the Janata Dal-United (JD-U), the All-India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam

(AIADMK), the Pattali Makkal Katchi (PMK), the Telugu Desam (TDP), the Telangana Rashtra Samithi (TRS), the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP), and the Trinamul Congress (TMC).

The losers will be the Left, the Samajwadi Party (SP), the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) and the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK). The Shiv Sena, the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) and the Biju Janata Dal (BJD) may hold on to their positions. But will the losers in 2009 determine government formation and can this lead to stability?

Government formation will happen in stages and it is possible that the Congress may emerge as the single largest party, though the gap is getting narrower between the Congress and the BJP and there is another round of polling left.

All the three groups have to think and plan but 2009 will be very different from 2004. The Left and the Congress will do well to remember that most parties in Group D have a "flexible" agenda and rigid stances can lead to a migration towards the BJP-led NDA.

The three possibilities are a Congress-led coalition with Group D if the former has the numbers and can meet the requirements of the Left and the demand list of the AIADMK, which could, for a start, be the dismissal of the DMK government.

Further, the TDP and the BJD may also need the assistance of the Congress if they have a hung Assembly in the state.

All the main parties in Group D (BSP, AIADMK, TDP and BJD) could also travel to the NDA if things do not work out to their satisfaction.

The first attempt I feel will be to forge a strong combination involving the Left and others in Group D. Attempts will be made to weaken both the UPA and the NDA by inducting the NCP and the JD(U) into this combination. At 160-plus seats they will be bigger than the Congress and the BJP but not bigger than either the UPA or the NDA.

We are witnessing near chaos and armed conflict on our borders with Pakistan, Sri Lanka and Nepal. Though the election results promise a great deal of confusion, the stock markets in India are showing an upward trend and this is a good and positive sign for the future. China and India are perhaps the only two large economies that will generate GDP growth despite a downturn.

The confusion in government formation and the influence of the Left can cause more than a ripple but this will be temporary as few political parties or groups can go against public opinion.

Of course, the Left have a point of view and not all of what they say is negative. After all, some credit must be given to them for having averted a major economic disaster which gripped Western countries and the personal integrity levels of Left leaders are an example to everyone else in the system.

Security issues persist and the situation in Pakistan is alarming. Few can predict events over the next few days.

An identical situation persists in Nepal where the Prime Minister resigned and the Maoists are accusing India of interference. The Sri Lanka government’s war with the LTTE has reached its final stages.

It is quite remarkable that in the midst of all this, over a billion people go to the ballots in India. The Election Commission, the security forces and the voting public do our nation proud.

The counting of votes and the results will give us a clear picture of the issues which have prevailed during the elections.

We all have a point of view and no matter how objective we are, our thinking is always biased to a certain extent. We will all be wiser by hindsight in a few days.

I think it would be a wise policy for those who aspire to be in governance to understand and respect the "split" verdict of the electorate.

As I said, silence is the best policy till May 16.

Arun Nehru is a former Union minister