:: Arun Nehru

Judge Jinnah by his actions

By Arun Nehru

Aug 30 : A political party after a stunning electoral defeat is somewhat like a defeated Army in retreat. What we are witnessing today is sad but not unexpected. We cannot yet pass judgment on these complicated issues but let us take a look at political "splits" in the past.

In 1967, Indira Gandhi was challenged by her conservative opponents, called "The Syndicate", after a series of defeats. But she emerged victorious. Again, in 1977, when Prime Minister Indira Gandhi opted for fresh elections (one year overdue), released her opponents and ended the Emergency, her Congress Party was routed in the north. And though they still won over 150 seats, Indira Gandhi, Sanjay Gandhi and other family members were hounded by the Janata government and, in the process, she was challenged by many in her party. But within a year she regained control. Indira Gandhi’s image and capacity to deliver an "election victory" moved the party cadres and tilted the result in her favour.

In 2004, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), under the leadership of Atal Behari Vajpayee, was confident of victory but it lost. In 2009 again, despite high expectations and victory in some Assembly elections, the BJP lost the general elections. Clearly, the "minority vote" tipped the scales against the BJP in 2004 despite the presence of Mr Vajpayee and, in my opinion, the BJP lost general elections 2009 as public perception of the party was negative. The BJP, like the Janata Dal in 1991, will keep suffering from "casualties" unless a total change in leadership takes place. But this looks unlikely to happen anytime soon. And till that happens, the BJP is likely to suffer further casualties.

There are several pressure points and we may see some further damage in the case of Vasundhara Raje Scindia, former chief minister of Rajasthan. The BJP has already shrunk to 116 seats and may go down further. The Congress will comfortably get 250-plus seats if elections were to be held today in the country.

In West Bengal, the Left is in chaos and the Trinamul Congress is gaining strength. In Uttar Pradesh, the Bahujan Samaj Party and the Samajwadi Party are fighting for control against heavy assault by the Congress, spearheaded by Rahul Gandhi. As in Uttar Pradesh, the Congress will try to find its foothold in Bihar too. The Rashtriya Janata Dal and Lok Janashakti Party are in serious trouble as opposition from the Congress is not going to be easy.

The Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam will maintain its electoral advantage in Tamil Nadu along with the Congress. The first 100 days of the United Progressive Alliance government will be of little advantage to the "losers" in the Lok Sabha elections.

Jaswant Singh — thanks to the needless controversy and his unnecessary expulsion — will make a small fortune from his book. It is his perception of events that took place and he is entitled to express his views. We live in a democracy where everyone has a different opinion. One only needs to look back in time to see the respect and attention Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru gave to the Opposition leaders despite their acidic remarks.

I think it is important to remember that barring the 1985 elections, the Congress won Lok Sabha elections with less than 50 per cent of the popular vote. This should make the winners and losers realise that there is need to work together on national issues.

It is sad that some political leaders make harsh remarks about the past. This reflects their weakness. No one needs to be told about Mahatma Gandhi and Pandit Jawarharlal Nehru. Muhammad Ali Jinnah, by all historical accounts, will not be evaluated by a single speech that he gave or observations made amongst friends. He will be judged by his actions over a period of time. From 1937 onwards, Jinnah was communal and his objective was Partition.

A healthy debate in academic circles, amidst intellectuals and social circles, should be encouraged. Whilst we live in the present and the future, there is no harm if we revisit the past.

I doubt if this topic will have any effect on "minority votes". Mr Singh is a man of integrity and it would be churlish to attribute motives to him. The same is true of Arun Shourie (how many more will follow?) .

Both Mr Singh and Mr Shourie had serious reservations about the direction the BJP was going in. Sadly the policy of keeping everyone happy results in unhappiness all around! There are no simplistic solutions for the BJP and with Mr Vajpayee no longer in active politics, there is no one in the BJP who commands the moral authority to resolve this crisis. Things will get worse before they get better for the BJP. This crisis is a huge loss for the talented youngsters in the party who have little option but to look for alternatives. I wonder if any of this would have happened if the BJP had won the elections?

Change always comes after a "disaster"! The United States had little interest in terror activities till 9/11 took place. And then suddenly they had to find a system to check the menace. Even after so many years they continue to struggle to find effective solutions.

THE DEBT derivates which wrecked the financial system in the US, United Kingdom and many countries in Europe have bought attention to the off-shore accounts in Switzerland. Swiss bank accounts, tax evasion and corruption are serious issues. You only need to Google to get details of the scams. The money involved goes into hundreds of billions of dollars.

The positive thing is that US President Barack Obama is putting intense pressure on cleaning the system and the UBS Bank in Switzerland has agreed to provide details to the US’ Internal Revenue Service. I wonder if we will have such luck. Clearly, the onus is on the Group of Twenty to take a decision to impose sanctions against any country which encourages "tax cheats"! In a scenario where economies can collapse like a pack of cards, punitive action must be initiated sooner rather than later.

Arun Nehru is a former Union minister