:: Arun Nehru

Coalition confusion ends

By Arun Nehru

The United Progressive Alliance (UPA) has registered a spectacular win and no doubt the "star" of the show is Rahul Gandhi. On several occasions in the past I have predicted that the Left with 65 seats, and the Samajwadi Party (SP), Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) and Lok Janshakti Party (LJP) combine with another 65 seats, would both shrink by 50 per cent! The voting public has opted for good governance. And it is evident from the results in Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, West Bengal and Kerala that the public has voted for the UPA and Nitish Kumar of the Janata Dal-United (JD-U).

The chart compares the 2004 results with the 2009 verdict.

The UPA is set to form the government with Dr Manmohan Singh as the Prime Minister. They will have a vast set of "allies" to choose from to cross the 272 mark. They no longer need the support of the Left, the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) and the All-India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK). We will have a strong and stable government from the UPA, and a strong and stable Opposition from the National Democratic Alliance (NDA). We could not have hoped for a better result and I have little doubt that both the UPA as well as the NDA will show maturity and restraint as they accept the electoral verdict.

The Congress has scored heavily over the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). There is no reason for anyone to give any further "groups" as the voting public has made these irrelevant as the the UPA has about 200-plus seats.

It is good to see Mamata Banerjee and the Trinamul Congress shatter all records with 19 seats, as the CPI(M) and the Left suffer a historic defeat.

Everyone had predicted that the UPA would be the single largest group. Most had predicted that the Congress will be the largest single party, but only a few were able to predict the "upside" that this trend would take. Clearly, the voting public is ahead of all political parties. The vote is for stability, continuity and for our future as a potential superpower.

As things stand, the Congress has increased its share from 144 seats to 200-plus seats, and this is a spectacular performance. The BJP has declined from 138 seats to close to 120 seats and the party has lost ground heavily in Rajasthan (which was expected), Punjab, Orissa, Madhya Pradesh and Uttarakhand.

In Orissa, Naveen Patnaik and the Biju Janata Dal (BJD) have delivered a miracle. This is as good a performance as any in this election.

The next week will be spent in government formation and whilst critical issues concerning internal security and economic matters need daily attention, a great deal of thought will also go into party affairs and the reforms initiated by Mr Rahul Gandhi as general secretary of the Congress.

The Congress reaching 200 seats is a very clear indicator that we may be swinging towards majority rule after two decades of coalition politics.

We may well witness "drastic changes" in the Assembly elections which are scheduled in the near future. The first test of this will come in Maharashtra where elections are due in October. The Congress may get greater priority than individual ministers and as Mr Rahul Gandhi builds his team for the future there will be "change" in the air within the party structure.

The Congress, for example, has won 21 seats in Uttar Pradesh and its traditional vote bank has returned to the party. But there is a long battle ahead as the BSP and SP are "wounded" and still capable of a strong fight. The BJP has suffered a setback and can lose its votes to the Congress. Make no mistake that the Congress in the next stage can win 45-50 seats out of 80 Assembly seats in the state.

The voting public has given the Congress the "numbers" to enable them to form a stable government without succumbing to coalition pressures from any quarter, and I think this will be reflected in the Cabinet formation.

It is time for us to settle into our normal routine with greater confidence in the future. After two decades of coalition confusion the numbers today have greater clarity for better governance.

Arun Nehru is a former Union minister