:: Arun Nehru

Change in Left, BJP must begin at the top

Arun Nehru

June.14 : Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and his Cabinet are yet to settle down. After a six-week long campaign this is understandable. Everyone is entitled to spend a few days reflecting on their victory as the next five years will give little time for "vacations". The expectation levels are predictably high and in our system, where elections are held every "quarter", alarm bells have already started ringing in Maharashtra.

The Congress and the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) will battle for supremacy in the upcoming Assembly elections. Sharad Pawar and his NCP are already on the defensive. In general elections 2009, the Congress gained over the Bharatiya Janata Party-Shiv Sena combine, and the induction of former chief minister Vilasrao Deshmukh in Dr Singh’s Cabinet is a clear indicator of things to come in the next three months. Mr Pawar is not an amateur in politics and will do everything possible (including alliances) to retain his power base. It will be interesting to watch the Congress try to get an upper hand with the NCP and reverse the earlier trend. The BJP-Shiv Sena will have to strengthen their alliance against the Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS) which wrecked the Shiv Sena in Mumbai city.

The Central Bureau of Investigation’s (CBI) probe is likely to throw many questions about the NCP’s handling of the murder of Congress leader Pawanraje Nimbalkar. NCP MP Padamsinh Patil is not a politician Mr Pawar can write off easily. The media will bring every aspect of the case, including financial irregularities, to the attention of the public and this can hurt Mr Pawar and the NCP at a point when he is already struggling to fix a vulnerable alliance with the Congress. Maharashtra is full of cases about politicians who took loans from government institutions to set up industry, sugar mills, even charitable trusts, and have not paid them back. Do Mr Patil and his family fall in this category of defaulters?

The Assembly elections in Haryana will be a total "sweep" for the Congress as the BJP- Indian National Lok Dal (INLD) is not an enduring alliance. Bhajan Lal can cause isolated problems unless the Bahujan Samaj Party’s (BSP) Mayawati changes plans and enters into an alliance with the BJP.

The BSP received a setback both in Uttar Pradesh and in the rest of the country and needs to think differently for the future. Its vote share will shrink unless it has an alliance. Maharashtra and Haryana will no doubt dominate the media, but there are over 50 byelections due in various states, including Uttar Pradesh and Bihar, where the Samajwadi Party (SP), the BSP and the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) will again get an opportunity to test their support base.

Political honeymoons are brief and violent. Besides the electoral battles, there are serious implications of events in Jammu and Kashmir which we must analyse along with the emerging situation in Pakistan, where the government is trying to balance military action against the Taliban in Swat Valley with increased financial aid from the US and appeasement of the hardline Islamic lobby opposed to India. I do not believe that the Asif Ali Zardari government has the stability or the political strength to balance so many contradictions. There is little we can do except to remain fully alert and guard against acts of terror.

The Kashmir Valley has witnessed a week of violence and agitations over the rape and death of two young women. The Army, the Central Reserve Police Force (CRPF) and the Special Operations Group of the state have camps in Shopian area where both the women had disappeared. The security forces have been accused and the matter needs to be resolved on an urgent basis. Looking at the operations in Kupwara, Reasi and the Poonch districts, where forces recovered huge quantity of weapons, there clearly is a "war against terror" in the Valley. We have incurred huge number of casualties and in such a situation criminal acts by a few tarnish the image of the security forces and the rule of law.

Elections are over and many of the "winners" will understand the reality of effective governance. With rewards come great responsibility and accountability. For the losers, this is the time to think and organise their party for the next electoral battle as in a democracy nothing lasts forever. Political trends cannot be ignored and on a broad canvas the Congress will try to expand the 200-plus verdict into a 272-plus syndrome whilst the BJP’s shrinkage from 135 to 115 seats and the Left’s from 60-plus seats to 25 should lead to changes both in policy and leadership.

I see a very bleak future for the RJD, the SP and the Lok Janashakti Party who have also shrunk from 65 to 25 seats in the 120 seats in Uttar Pradesh and Bihar. The Congress is best placed on the "leadership" issue to reach their objective and apart from the Dr Singh-Sonia Gandhi duo, the "star" of the 2009 election victory Rahul Gandhi continues his efforts to build the party. There is still an incredible amount of work to be done in several states and this is where his carefully-cultivated team will play a vital role.

The BJP has to look at the future or it will shrink to 50-75 seats. Things are no different for the Left which faces a rout in both West Bengal and Kerala in the Assembly elections in 2011.

Change is never easy in "defeat" and there is a natural tendency to play the blame game to divert responsibility. But change is necessary in both the BJP and the Left and that change must begin from the top!

Arun Nehru is a former Union minister