:: Arun Nehru

Bypolls will put losers, winners to test again

By Arun Nehru

Jul 12 : The Budget has arrived and we all apply the benefit of hindsight to give our views on the Budget. My assessment is that after a steep climb in the index (up 80 per cent), a 10-15 per cent correction was due in the market. And this has happened for a couple of reasons: the Budget did not have any "miracle" cures for the economy, the global economic outlook continues to disappoint and the monsoon forecast has been wrong and is becoming increasingly difficult to predict. But the reality still is that we will grow at 6.5 per cent-plus in gross domestic product (GDP) which is clearly not enough to stimulate the economy on most fronts. Given the circumstances, we have a good Budget based on practical considerations in India and abroad. The positive sign I see is the fact that the entire finance team, from Union finance minister Pranab Mukherjee to Planning Commission deputy chairman Montek Singh Ahluwalia and senior officials, shows concern for the doubts raised by the public and explains each step in detail.

We cannot expect any substantial recovery in industrial production unless the global economy, specifically the US and Europe, recovers. The month of June 2009 shows a decline in exports of 30 per cent and signals from business for the current year are not encouraging for us to take a more optimistic view of the situation. Few economic experts could predict the collapse of the financial system and few if any have a solution for the future as capitalist countries indulge in "extreme socialism" to survive the economic chaos. In simplistic terms, everyone is trying to stimulate their economy by heavy spending to revive demand! The developed world is creating "huge deficits" and spending money that does not exist and I sometimes wonder if the "black money" phenomena which we condemn at every possible forum, is actually helping to keep our economy going on a six per cent-plus GDP growth. I don’t believe in the doom and gloom theory but the road ahead is difficult and in a few days the Budget will be forgotten and the focus will shift to the global economy where the news is not good. We must tighten our belts, curb excessive expenditure at all levels and try to maintain our savings rate.

We are shocked, stunned and saddened by the brutality with which Ranbir Singh, a young MBA student, was tortured and murdered by over a dozen policemen in Dehra Dun. The 24x7 media brought this gruesome reality home and it was somewhat comforting to see that the government concerned acted with speed and arrested and charged many policemen with murder. I hope the culprits are hanged at the earliest as an example to other public servants who abuse their power and make a mockery of the law in this manner. The post-mortem revealed torture and 28 gun wounds. What kind of animals were these policemen? It has been reported that two deputy superintendent of police have been suspended because they threatened the victim’s relatives at the mortuary, while the senior superintendent of police has been transferred! The Central Bureau of Investigation has been handed over the case and hopefully the matter will be speedily disposed of. But what words of comfort can one express to the parents of the young man who lost his life?

We have seen how the rape and murder of two young women in Shopian resulted in widespread violence in the Valley because close to a fortnight was lost till action was taken. All this and more has happened in the past but the difference now is that the media brings home the truth in a few minutes, eliminates all "cover-up" techniques adopted by the guilty and ensures speedy action. We have seen incidents of student violence reported in many parts of Australia and the issue made both the governments, in India and Australia, to initiate security measures. We have seen the Andhra Pradesh slapping incident and today we see the manner in which the Supreme Court verdict on the Aravali hills is being violated by illegal mining. Will the Supreme Court act on these reports?

The media initiative forced action in several cases — including the Jessica Lal, Nitesh Katara, Priyadarshi Muttoo and the BMW case. And now they have assisted in the Dehra Dun case and bought some solace to the family and friends of the young victim.

We are now gearing up for a string of Lok Sabha and Assembly elections where all the winners and losers of the general elections will get another opportunity to test their strength. The most interesting battle will, of course, be in Uttar Pradesh where chief minister Mayawati, busy with statues and other monuments, will have to battle the Congress and the Samajwadi Party. I feel that if the downward slide were to continue, the state could well go into an early election. The Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) chief minister, no longer a major player on the national scene, may remove her advisers, punish the bureaucrats and policemen, but the fact is that in a one-leader party it is she who will enjoy the benefits of victory and suffer the pain of defeat.

The Assembly elections in Maharashtra, Haryana and Jharkhand will no doubt attract media attention but it’s the byelections which will reveal important trends for the future. The Bharatiya Janata Party will get another opportunity to redeem their reputation as they will be the principal opposition in Maharashtra and Jharkhand. In Haryana, the BSP-Bhajan Lal combination can win a few seats against the very strong opposition from the Congress.

Arun Nehru is a former Union minister