:: Arun Nehru

Bypoll verdict is a warning, not a sign

By Arun Nehru

Sep 27 : The bypolls battle is over and electoral results from 49 seats cutting across 12 states give a clear political message. But it would be premature to arrive at any conclusions and determine trends for the future.

The Congress lost seven seats while the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) gained five. The majority of this is confined to results in Gujarat where the BJP (Narendra Modi) won five out of seven seats held by the Congress.

The BJP won one out of two seats in Madhya Pradesh (both Congress seats). In Bihar, while the Rashtriya Janata Dal-Lok Janashakti Party (RJD-LJP combine) won nine out of 18 seats, the BJP managed to retain three seats. The losses are confined to the Janata Dal (United) and Nitish Kumar.

In Delhi, the Congress lost ground after a poor performance in the Delhi University student’s union elections. In Uttar Pradesh, the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) won three seats. As compared to the Lok Sabha elections, the Assembly elections are very complicated where the selection of candidates becomes a vital issue and often local issues and local leaders prevail.

Look at the plight of Bihar chief minister Nitish Kumar who gave tickets to defectors from the RJD. Most of them lost to the RJD-LJP combine. During the 2009 Lok Sabha elections, the BJP’s confusion on leadership and ideology was apparent to the voters and it cost the party many seats. But the effect of this was not visible in the byelections.

The setback suffered by the Congress in Gujarat reinforces the need of "new" leadership in the state. However, the losses in Delhi and Uttar Pradesh are not significant as a seat or two does not reflect the trend. But many are asking if the results of the bypolls will be repeated in the Assembly elections in Maharashtra and Haryana?

I don’t think this will happen. There is no relation between the trends observed in a byelections and Assembly elections, as conditions vary in each state. In Maharashtra, the Congress-Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) alliance looks stronger than the BJP-Shiv Sena combine. However, Maharashtra Navnirman Sena can cause serious damage. Whilst inflation and anti-incumbency trends are major issues, I see the Congress emerging as the single largest party in Maharashtra Assembly elections.

In Haryana, the Congress should win comfortably. The Indian National Lok Dal (INLD), Bhajan Lal, the BJP and the BSP will individually fragment votes. Once again, the Opposition is in confusion and is no match to chief minister Bhupinder Singh Hooda. But Mr Hooda may face trouble while handling dissidence within the Congress in distribution of tickets as everyone likes to be on the winning side. But Assembly elections in 2011 may well determine the Lok Sabha trends for 2014 in "key states".

Five states representing close to 200 Lok Sabha seats go for Assembly elections in 2011 — West Bengal, Kerala, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar and Tamil Nadu.

The Congress, with 200-plus seats in 2009, may well target 250-300 seats. This is within its reach as it is well-placed in West Bengal (with the support of Trinamul Congress), Kerala and Tamil Nadu.

Clearly, Uttar Pradesh and Bihar hold the key to the future. The political battle in Uttar Pradesh is evenly matched between the BSP, the Samajwadi Party and the Congress. Whilst in Bihar the electoral battle is still between the coalition of JD(U)-BJP and the RJD-LJP.

Watch these five states as they hold the key to the future formation of the government at Centre. After more than two decades of coalition governments at the Centre, we may be heading for a long phase of majority rule. Good political planning and governance is always based on a long-term strategy.

WE WITNESS a great deal of activity with regard to Hafiz Mohammad Saeed, the alleged mastermind of the 26/11 Mumbai terror attacks. Despite growing pressure from the United States, I think little will happen as the 26/11 terror attacks were planned by many rogue elements who are currently part of the Pakistani establishment.

We play the game of musical chairs with Pakistan. And while Pakistan takes two steps forward when its "aid" is threatened, it retreats three steps when pressure abates.

Pakistan knows that the US is stuck in Afghanistan and Iraq and has few options. Though Hafiz Saeed is under house arrest, he was an honoured guest at an iftar party hosted by the Pakistan Army.

We have limited options, but is our national will and determination displayed in our attitude towards those who indulge in criminal acts against India?

Political compromises are a part of life. But is it not strange that whilst we go through the rituals of paying tribute to our martyrs and heroes of the Kargil war, we still find time to entertain and give prominence to the Pakistan Army dictator responsible for this conflict?

The position is no different in the case of the 26/11 terror attacks where the "killer’s" trial may take five to ten years and then the government may take another five to ten years to take a decision on the court verdict. The pending mercy petition of Afzal Guru, the mastermind of Parliament attack, is a case in point.

Union home minister P. Chidambaram is creating the infrastructure and expertise to handle crisis situations better, but what we need is the political will and determination to pursue a zero-tolerance policy. Sadly, this does not exist in our political structure.

Political "accidents" determine events. A glance at the past 50 years will reveal whether any dramatic changes have taken place by "planned" political action.

There is a great threat to our external and internal security and the situation is deteriorating by the day as we live in denial about the ground reality.

The growth of our gross domestic product has generated enormous wealth in the political structure. "Dynastic" strains have now extended to individuals with huge financial assets (every family has a business "genius") who are protected by excessive security and government facilities. They are weakening our political structure.

Arun Nehru is a former Union minister