:: Arun Nehru

As RSS tightens grip, BJP set to lose votes

Arun Nehru

Sept.06 : Governance is never easy and Prime Minister Manmohan Singh has shown concern on several issues covering the economy, drought and security issues, both internal and external. But is this concern reflected by action on ground?

Even as we fight on several fronts, the Union finance ministry is putting in a great deal of effort to ensure a respectable growth pattern despite the poor monsoons and the drought. The experience and ability of finance minister Pranab Mukherjee is a big positive for the United Progressive Alliance (UPA) government.

In my opinion, home minister P. Chidambaram has done extremely well given the time constraints. Looking at the grim security situation around us it's clear that we need to put in greater effort in the future to secure out cities and boundaries. The ministry should attract the best talent available at all levels.

The other high-profile ministry is agriculture. With weak monsoons and rising drought situation, there will be "a crisis a day" and the progress is far from satisfactory. The prices of foodgrains are escalating because of shortages (or hoarding?).

I wonder if the UPA government is taking things lightly in view of the fact that the main Opposition - the Bharatiya Janata Party - is in chaos. This can be a fatal error.

The BJP is in crisis, the Left is in full retreat and many regional parties have yet to recover from the Lok Sabha drubbing. In such a situation can the UPA government afford to turn its attention away from the daily grind of governance and the problems generated by a grim security situation (external and internal), drought and the plight of farmers all over the country?

The BJP is in complete chaos. The Left too has lost its importance and relevance as it has shrunk from 65 seats to less than 24 seats. You do not need the services of an eminent astrologer to predict that the Left will suffer defeat at the hands of Trinamul Congress-Congress combine in the West Bengal Assembly elections in 2011. The situation is no better in Kerala and the Left, with limited options, will have to seek alliances to regain its position.

My assessment is that the Left's situation is far worse than the BJP as the Left is stuck with an "archaic" ideology and cadre-based control. Moreover, for electoral success, use of violence is no longer an option in West Bengal.

Railway minister Mamata Banerjee is the future and will gain by the day. Few will forget the circumstances that got Ms Banerjee her first Lok Sabha seat in 1985. Her victory by 50,000-plus votes against Somnath Chatterjee was a "near" miracle. Over the past 25 years she has devoted her life to the people of West Bengal and her integrity, austerity and total devotion to her cause evoke both respect and admiration.

The Communist Party of India-Marxist (CPI-M) had no answer to Ms Banerjee. During her 25-year long political career, she has seen and dealt with "peaks and valleys". It has, indeed, been a remarkable political battle.

The Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) and the BJP are in denial mode. I don't think the patchwork solution has any meaning for the party as a political force. The reality of the situation is that despite the constant interference of the RSS, the BJP won the 1999 general elections with the charismatic and acceptable Atal Behari Vajyapee as the Prime Minister.

But in the 2004 general elections, despite Mr Vajpayee's able leadership, the riots in Gujarat and the minority vote demolished the BJP's electoral prospects. Mr Vajpayee's retirement from active politics on health grounds gave the BJP a new leader in L.K. Advani but the verdict of 2009 elections was clearly in favour of the UPA led by Dr Singh. Mrs Sonia Gandhi and Rahul Gandhi were strong positives for the Congress and few, if any, correctly predicted the winning or losing margins for the Congress and the BJP.

Wisdom by hindsight and we can attribute any reason we want for the BJP poll debacle, but beyond individuals the fact remains that dual power bases create confusion and chaos. The personality of Mr Vajpayee eclipsed the RSS but this was not true of Mr Advani.

Going by the current indications, the grip of the RSS seems to be tightening on the BJP and this will result in further losses. The party faces electoral defeat in Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh, Haryana and Jharkhand. The Congress will survive the anti-incumbency vote.

Sadly, in the BJP, things will get much worse before they show any improvement. The BJP - hopeful of a win - attracted a great deal of interest from politicians looking for adjustments, officials looking for political space and many others including those in the media for placement. After the defeats, most of these will be the first to leave.

As I have said before, a party in defeat is not a pretty sight. Mr Advani will be blamed for what clearly is a defeat for conflicting power bases. By maintaining silence, he maintains his dignity.

THE LAST two weeks have been devoted to the past, and everyone seems to be settling old scores. One cannot help but feel that the "window of opportunity" has passed every leader involved in the controversy.

Systems of governance and political propriety make it necessary for us to remember the confidentiality and secrecy required in discussions in the Cabinet Committee on Political Affairs and Cabinet Committee on Economic Affairs and in the Cabinet Committee on Security. Many of us, who had the privilege to sit in these committees, realise the importance of discretion.

I feel saddened that the 1998 nuclear tests in Pokhran should be debated in public by retired scientists and officials. Is this in national interest? I was shocked to see ailing and incoherent Homi Sethna firing verbal missiles at former President A.P.J. Abdul Kalam. What was the purpose of this tirade? Dr Singh had to finally settle the issue.

Be it the Kargil war or nuclear tests in Pokhran, these are national issues and should not made topics of political controversy.

Arun Nehru is a former Union minister