:: Arun Nehru

Cong voters return, BJP almost invisible

Arun Nehru

Nov.15 : Political trends are setting in and, as I had forecast last week, these are now visible and not easy to reverse unless major realignments take place or "political" accidents occur. The most significant changes come in Uttar Pradesh where the Congress Party’s performance has been spectacular. The party is poised to win in excess of 50 seats in the next Lok Sabha elections. For the Assembly, the major contest will now be between the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) and the Congress with the Samajwadi Party (SP) a distant third. The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has simply ceased to exist.

I think we have seen a "miracle" of sorts and clearly credit is due to Rahul Gandhi and the team he has created in the state. The persistent Raj Babbar winning in Firozabad by 85,343 votes signals the ultimate decline of the SP and after the Assembly results are analysed we may well see a major migration of votes from the SP to both the Congress and the BSP.

Mayawati’s BSP won nine out of 11 seats and whilst this is a remarkable achievement she will also note that the Congress comes second in five seats!

Trends have little time for statistics and past performance, but as things stand, the public sentiment is in favour of the Congress for the Lok Sabha elections and for Mayawati/BSP in the Assembly with the SP in the "shadows". All political parties have the whole of 2010 for changes and adjustments necessary till they go for elections in 2011.

The Congress votebanks have returned to the party and soon there will be an "exodus" of party workers which will test the selection system initiated by Mr Gandhi. The Uttar Pradesh trend will also spark off a Congress revival in many other parts of the country — Bihar, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand and Himachal Pradesh will see its immediate effects as the BJP continues to bleed with internal contradictions between the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) and individuals within the BJP.

The BJP will keep "shrinking" and keep blaming individuals instead of concentrating on the core issues. The interference of the RSS will reduce the BJP to less than 50 seats in the next Lok Sabha!

The internal revolt in Karnataka has been resolved for the moment but there will be serious problems in all the BJP states as the party loses support. Unless the current chief ministers in Gujarat, Himachal Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh take charge they will go in the direction of Rajasthan, Haryana and Karnataka.

Vasundhara Raje was removed as the leader of the Opposition in Rajasthan; in Haryana "commercial considerations" prevailed and alliances did not take place; in Karnataka "mining" interests prevailed; and in Uttar Pradesh the party has practically vanished! Like the Left, the RSS and those in charge of the BJP are pursuing an outdated political ideology and continue their tirade which is damaging their own political citadels.

The Left has lost its relevance and has shrunk from 60-plus seats in 2004 to 25 seats in 2009. And looking at the current trends, they will be lucky to get 10-15 seats in 2014. No surprise that Mamata Banerjee will sweep West Bengal and the Congress will win Kerala in 2011. New political forces may well emerge as a political system needs a stable ruling party and a viable Opposition and the voting public may well create this situation. Chief ministers Narender Modi, Nitesh Kumar and Naveen Patnaik may well have to carefully consider their options and consider how they can sustain a political assault by the Congress, who will try everything in the book to retain their political space, and the regional parties. The current fluid situation will not last for long and is going to result in a realignment of political forces. So this may well be the time for the leadership of the future to emerge both at the Centre and in the states.

The byelection results will also help the Congress to consolidate new governments in Maharashtra where the new chief minister Ashok Chavan has to consolidate his position within the party and in Haryana where chief minister Bhupinder Singh Hooda splits the Haryana Janhit Congress and now has 50 MLAs and is free of the internal dissent within the Congress.

The current weakness in the Congress is Andhra Pradesh but with the passage of time possible solutions are beginning to take shape and the coming Hyderabad municipal elections will bring out the internal contradictions within the ruling party and the Opposition into focus. The Congress would be making a mistake if it succumbs to "business" interests over political considerations.

The Congress also has a positive situation in Assam where chief minister Tarun Gogoi continues his good work and won both the seats, in Dhekiajuli and South Salmara, by margins of 21,000 and 6,000 respectively. In Rajasthan the Congress won Salumbar by 3,000 votes but lost Todabhim by 8,000 votes to the BJP. And in Himachal Pradesh the Congress lost Rohru to the BJP and this will dent the political image of former chief minister Virbhadra Singh who had won from this seat on five occasions.

Every election is important. Every election has a message and for those in governance there is little time to express joy or sorrow as politics never takes a vacation and public opinion can never be taken for granted.

Political accidents continue and the media brings home the reality to the public with a clear message to those in governance. We see the lawyer agitation in Karnataka against the high court chief justice. We watch with disgust the senseless violence in the Maharashtra Assembly and we witness another scuffle involving Manu Sharma and his friends with gun-toting bodyguards. Are we going to witness another murder?

26/11. The Mumbai attack’s first anniversary is fast approaching and we will witness once again the horror of terrorism and the sad tragedy of all those who have suffered personal loss and the fact that there has been no "justice" for them as the killers and planners still go about their business in Pakistan.

Arun Nehru is a former Union minister