A Maharashtrian PM, soon?

Since India has never had one from the region till now, one wonders who Devendra Fadnavis was hinting at when he said there will be more than one Maharashtrian PM by 2050.

Last Friday, addressing a public inaugural of the 16th Jagatik Marathi Sammelan (World Marathi Conference) in Nagpur, Devendra Fadnavis, the Chief Minister (CM) of Maharashtra, made a statement that reiterated an old suppressed ambition of Marathis. When asked whether a Maharashtrian will become a Prime Minister (PM) by 2050, the CM answered nonchalantly, “Why not? Of course, we’ll see Maharashtrian PM by 2050. If anyone has really ruled India in a real sense, it is Maharashtrians. By 2050, more than one Maharashtrian would occupy PM’s post.”

Since independent India has never seen a Marathi Prime Minister, he seems to have been referring to the proud narrative of the Peshwas holding control over the Mughal Empire during the 18th century. But as the facts of the history laid bare, right from the Peshwas to the contemporary time, never has any Marathi leader – pre-independence or post-independence – held nationally a central top position either by becoming kings or the Prime Minister. So as historically paradoxical the statement may have been, one wonders who Fadnavis has in mind?

It is no doubt that in the contemporary political environment when it comes to any Maharashtrian having a representation in the central government, Nitin Gadkari’s name rings a bell. Moreover, the current Minister for Road Transport & Highways, Shipping and Water Resources, River Development & Ganga Rejuvenation in Narendra Modi’s cabinet, is rumoured to have caused an internal upheaval in BJP regarding the confidence in the current party’s leadership. His criticism over BJP’s loss in the assembly elections of Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh and his friendly affiliations with the opposition party members may be taken by some as anarchy against Modi, but whether Gadkari can realise Marathi community’s nationalistic dream to reach Delhi is still quite contentious.  

HISTORICAL PERSPECTIVE – PREVIOUS CONTENDERS
In the post-independent India electoral system, the majority of Member of Parliament (MP) seats won in the Lok Sabha determine which independent party or coalition will form the central government. According to the number game, with more than 80  seats in UP and 40 in Bihar, the maximum PMs have sprouted from the northern belt. Since Maharashtra has only 48 seats, it is naturally a deterrent for Maharashtrians to enjoy popular confidence in central government. However, if the multi-lingual Bombay State had been intact, and its division into Gujarat and Maharashtra hadn’t been a contemporary reality, the number of MPs from the state would have definitely been the largest, and hence there could have been Marathi PMs. Although the political analyst Prakash Bal Joshi reminds us that politics is not all about crunching the numbers. Joshi says, “It is not entirely numerical because once you go to the national level, then you not only depend on your own state which of course forms the core, but also take into consideration the personal aspirations and the support of the other states and their leaders also.” Hence, it becomes important to look at the previous leaders from the state who almost made it to the esteemed post.

Within 15 years of independence, when Jawaharlal Nehru summoned the Congress leader Yashwantrao Chavan from being a CM of Maharashtra to become the Defence Minister in the wake of 1962 Indo-China War, for the first time a Marathi had earned a stature of getting represented in the central government. As Sanjay Hegde, a senior advocate of the Supreme Court says, “It was seen as the Sahaydris was going to defend the Himalayas.” Chavan even went on to become the Union Home Minister, Finance Minister and Deputy Prime Minister. But since the Congress leadership belonged to the Gandhi family, he could not contest any further. As political analyst Abhay Deshpande puts it, “He was the tallest leader we have in Maharashtra; he reached there because of the Gandhi family, but he was not able to cross that barrier.”

After Chavan, born under the former’s tutelage was former CM of Maharashtra Sharad Pawar, who in more than five decades of his tumultuous political career, came twice as close to becoming a Prime Minister. In 1991, after Rajiv Gandhi’s assassination, the succession to the post was likely to be either PV Narasimha Rao’s or Pawar’s. But as Abhay enlightens, “At that point, he did not get the support from his party.” Pawar’s dream was shattered for the first time, and after a brief stint as the Defence Minister, he was sent back to become the state CM in 1993. The other time when he almost brushed past the post was during the 1999 Lok Sabha elections when he raised the issue of Sonia Gandhi’s foreign-origin as a reason for her being unfit to helm Congress’ leadership. To counter the leadership, he along with P. A. Sangma formed Nationalist Congress Party (NCP). According to Joshi, “If he had continued in Congress and hadn’t raised the issue of foreign origin, instead of Manmohan Singh, he could have been considered for the position of PM.”

A third name that crops up in the league of politicians who could have become Prime Minister is as revealed by Hegde,  “Maharashtra may have had the Prime Mister by now, had Pramod Mahajan not been shot by his brother.” Murdered in the cold blood by his brother, the BJP leader was known to have national aspirations quite early on in his career and had the aptitude and organizational skills that were required and reflected of Atal Bihari Vajpayee and L.K. Advani’s conservative politics.

NITIN GADKARI – THE PAST, THE PRESENT AND THE FUTURE
As Fadnavis’s statement continues to make rounds, all Marathi eyes are on Gadkari to fulfill their Prime Ministerial aspirations. Joshi reminds us that whoever becomes a PM depends on how they have been a part of the political process and their individual struggle. Although, he emphasizes caution when he admits that the former BJP President does hold the ground to reach that level. “Nitin Gadkari has the potential, but we never know. After Lokmanya Tilak, he was perhaps the second leader who led a major political party in the country. Bal Gangadhar Tilak led Congress in Maharashtra, while Nitin Gadkari led BJP. These are major national parties,” he opines. Although, he asserts that Modi remains to be the most powerful and charismatic leader of BJP, and so for the opportunity for Gadkari to arrive this year are bleak.  

Deshpande too highlights Gadkari’s state political career to suggest that he can consolidate himself as the next Maharashtrian frontrunner. “Gadkari has always focussed on the development agenda. Look at his track record in Maharashtra as the PWD Minister. The Pune-Mumbai Express Highway was initiated in his tenure. Even in the centre, he is looking at roads and transport. So the development agenda has always been on the forefront,” he explains. Although he too agrees that the chance for Gadkari to helm the election this year is not feasible, but does present a situation which could turn the tide. “If BJP goes below 200, everybody will look for an acceptable-liberal leadership in the party. In that case, Gadkari might have a chance, only because he enjoys RSS support and has good friends in other parties like Sharad Pawar,” reveals Deshpande.  

It is no secret that Gadkari being an MP from Nagpur has been closely associated with the fringe organisation RSS. It is perhaps why in an implicit fashion, suggesting it quite explicitly, Hegde concludes, “One of the seats of the Indian politics will be the Nagpur and RSS, and if Nagpur is going to formulate the political thought in the country and given that Maharashtra has 48 seats. I see no reason why at some point in time, in the next thirty years, there shouldn’t be any prime minister from Maharashtra.”