As Mayawati seeks to expand rainbow, BJP, SP get ready

Stepping out of her tried and tested dalit-MBC-Muslim-Brahmin combination, BSP supremo Mayawati lent support to the Jat quota.

The Assembly election in Uttar Pradesh, slated for 2017, is all set to witness a clash between Ms Mayawati’s attempt to expand her social rainbow by supporting Jat reservation and traders and the SP and BJP’s aggressive attempts to polarise the vote bank on religious lines.

Ms Mayawati in her new avatar stepped out of her tried and tested dalit-MBC-Muslim-Brahmin combination and supported the Jat reservation issue despite the fact that in western Uttar Pradesh it has mainly been Jats versus the Jatavs, who have been BSP’ core vote bank. Also, she recently lent support to the jewellers’ strike in a bid to steal the thunder from the BJP, which in north India is often referred to as the “traders’ party”.

If the BSP is trying to expand its base, the BJP leadership, aware that nearly 18.5 per cent of Muslims in the state are going to vote against the party, seem to have unleashed hardliners like Sakshi Maharaj and Yogi Adityanath to cut across the caste barrier and consolidate the Hindu vote bank.

After Sakshi Maharaj’s controversial remark that “women in Islam are no better than footwear”, another BJP MP, Yogi Adityanath, asked the Muslims of India “to relocate themselves to the countries where Shariat law is in practice”.

The party is also aware that in western UP the Jats, who had overwhelmingly voted for the BJP in the last general election, were rapidly moving away. In fact, Ms Mayawati outfoxed the BJP and the SP by describing the Jats’ demand for reservation as “justified”.

In the 2014 polls, Ms Mayawati was completely decimated as her vote share plunged from 30.43 per cent to 19.62 per cent. Lured by the BJP’s promise of “achchhe din”, her core vote bank deserted her. As of now Ms Mayawati’s “elephant” seems to be slowly but steadily working its way up.

A concerned BJP leader from UP grudgingly admitted, “No doubt, Mayawati has an edge at this juncture.”

The BSP has not only launched a door-to-door campaign but is rapidly regaining lost territory, particularly among the Most Backward Classes which include the Kushwahas, Kahars, Kewats, Kumhars, Koeris and Gadarias. Some feel that her main vote bank of Jatavs, who comprise nearly 12 per cent of the state, have returned to her despite her support to the Jat agitation.

For the BJP, Uttar Pradesh is being dubbed “battle royale”. By appointing Mr Keshav Chandra Maurya, a Koeri caste OBC leader, as state unit chief, sources said the BJP has given a clear signal that it is back to the Mandal-Kamandal plank. Mr Maurya, a former VHP leader, has been known for his cow-protection crusades and was a karsevak during the Ram Mandir agitation. With Mr Maurya the BJP seemed to be returning to the Kalyan Singh era. Kalyan Singh, an OBC, was also a Hindutva hardliner. With the prominence of leaders like Maurya, Adityanath, Sakshi Maharaj, Sanjeev Baliyan and Sangeet Som, the saffronites have set the narrative. Liberal leaders in UP, including Mr Varun Gandhi, have been completely marginalised. Saffron spin doctors are of the opinion that if the vote bank can be “successfully polarised and Muslims votes are split between the Congress, BSP and SP, it will be advantage BJP.”

Reeling under heavy anti-incumbency, the Samajwadi Party is not only losing its minority vote bank but even a chunk of Yadavs are reportedly inching towards Ms Mayawati. With its caste equation going awry, the SP is trying to woo the Muslims with various new schemes. Interestingly, a section of SP functionaries held the party’s Muslim face, Mr Azam Khan, responsible for losing its base among the minorities. “His lifestyle and arrogance have become counter-productive for the party,” a senior SP leader said.