In Assam, BJP ‘outsiders’ shape strategy

With opinion polls predicting an edge for the BJP in the forthcoming Assembly elections in Assam, the party’s state unit wants star campaigners to rely more on “local inputs” rather than those furnished by “outsiders”. There is also a growing feeling among the BJP state cadre that the party is not being able to take “advantage of the Modi wave prevailing in Assam”. Though the BJP is heavily banking on Sarbananda Sonowal, its chief ministerial candidate who dominates the campaign material, a section within the party’s state unit also wants some “changes” in the election strategy for the “change” promised by the BJP to the state.

The first phase of polling in Assam is scheduled for April 4, when 65 of the 126 Assembly constituencies will vote. The BJP, along with allies AGP and BPF, is hoping to dethrone the Congress, which has been ruling the state for 15 years. The principal Opposition party, the All-India Democratic United Front (AIUDF), is also hoping to play an crucial role in the next government formation.

Not taking lessons from the severe drubbing in Delhi and Bihar, the BJP’s “team of outsiders” and not the local leaders are giving final shape to election strategies. The state cadre feels this is one of the reasons why star campaigners like Smriti Irani, Nitin Gadkari, Rajnath Singh, among others, fail to highlight many regional issues in their speeches.

The state unit is also of the view that the party’s election strategists are not utilising the growing sentiment against some of the candidates fielded by the Badruddin Ajmal-led AIUDF. The state cadre wants the party leadership to aggressively campaign against the “tactical understanding” between the ruling Congress and the AIUDF, which the BJP accuses of supporting illegal immigrants.

Though the Muslim-dominated AIUDF can impact the voting pattern in almost 30 of the total 126 Assembly segments, the BJP-led alliance is hoping that polarisation works in its favour as banning illegal immigrants is one of the major poll planks of the NDA in the state.

The state’s “complex” demography is also making it hard for BJP poll managers to emphasise on “Assamese pride” as Hindu and Muslim immigrants from Bangladesh also have a significant population in the state.

Another factor that could dent the BJP’s prospects is not fulfilling the promises it gave tribals ahead of the 2014 general elections, including reservation for six tribes. However, the party has been promising to resolve this issue in its poll campaigns.

A majority within the BJP state unit is also not happy with the central leadership’s decision to induct former Congress leader Himanta Biswa Sarma, who they allege played an important role in the candidate selection.

Citing Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s recent election rally in Kalinagar, a senior BJP leader said it was perhaps the biggest rally that the Barak Valley saw after former PM Indira Gandhi’s rally in the early ‘70s.

“PM Modi’s popularity here (Assam) is strong but it all depends on how we utilise it for our electoral benefit and benefit of the state,” the leader said.