UP: Advantage BSP, but BJP the fulcrum

Once upon a time, it was said that anyone who ruled Uttar Pradesh also exercised control over India. Not any more. Now even being chief minister provides no assurance of being the boss of his/her party. Since the advent of the coalition era, electors in the state during Assembly polls repeatedly voted parties that were marginal stakeholders at the Centre. For a decade and a half, their choice at the state level differed with the parliamentary preference despite the two elections being held within a couple of years of each other. Citing how the electorate has behaved, the BJP will adopt an air of nonchalance and contend that failure to secure a majority or emerge as the single-largest party in the forthcoming edition will have no bearing on the Central government and the public image of Prime Minister Narendra Modi. The argument, however, will not hold much water because ruling parties at the Centre in the past did not have a clear majority like the BJP has. After its spectacular performance in 2014, the BJP’s failure to secure a majority will be undeniably analysed in conjunction with the rout last year in Bihar and depicted as indication that Mr Modi has lost his ability to win polls. This will have a direct bearing on his government because failure to win UP will undermine the Prime Minister’s political authority and undermine his position within the Sangh Parivar. Moreover, because his party faces an unprecedented challenge in Gujarat, Mr Modi will be well aware that defeat in UP can have a cascading impact.

The BJP’s chances in UP depend on two factors: one that it can attempt to shape, but has no control on the other. Its success in reviving the atmosphere of social animosity and rampant polarisation it fashioned in 2014 will significantly improve the chances for a BJP victory. Party leaders are aware that chances to form a government in the state after a gap of 15 years are negligible unless they are able to successfully market a combination of jingoistic nationalism, communal polarisation and a small portion of development chatter. For several months, the BJP has attempted to use every occasion to sharpen communal cleavages. The party took a shot at reviving the Dadri issue and made a serious bid to portray alleged migration of Hindu families from Kairana as an instance of growing aggression of minority communalism. None of these attempts was successful, forcing the BJP to explore alternatives.

No credible analyst will argue that “surgical strikes” in Pakistan were undertaken with the objective of securing domestic benefit. But it would be unwise to expect Mr Modi not to try gaining from his strategic offensive against Pakistan during the elections. The campaign waged by Mr Modi, his Cabinet colleagues and party leaders is indicative that the strategic offensive will be milked to the utmost in UP. The BJP is hamstrung because in the past, support for it peaked only in the wake of articulation of aggressive Hindutva. The BJP is further handicapped as in India there is no demographic majority because Hindus are divided into several castes — at times antagonistic — and the party can electorally benefit only by cobbling an artificial majority. This has been done mainly by spreading prejudice against minorities and raising the fear of being outnumbered or out-leveraged because of adversaries appeasing Muslims. Hindu consolidation is possible only by forging a coalition of groups, mostly at each other’s throats, by raising the spectre of the “other”. This time the raising of a political majority is being attempted by infusing hyper-nationalism into anti-minorityism. The party hopes that such a campaign will neutralise the absence of a chief ministerial face in a presidential-style contest.

The other factor on which the BJP’s fortunes will rest but over which it has little control except by dubious means, is the manner in which developments within the Samajwadi Party unravel and whether attempts to cobble up a “Mahagathbandhan” succeed. If Akhilesh Yadav buries the hatchet with Shivpal Yadav and a grand alliance is put together, it would undoubtedly make it a credible force in the elections. Regardless of where it finishes in the race, the BJP is undoubtedly the fulcrum of the contest. The emergence of a SP-led alliance as a reliable group will likely force split in the anti-BJP vote and improve the BJP’s prospects while stymieing the Bahujan Samaj Party’s. If he plans to branch out on his own, time is running out for the UP chief minister. Mulayam Singh Yadav has revived the idea of “Mahagathbandhan” not because he overnight rediscovered benefits of strategic alliances. Rather, he is pursuing the grouping because he sees in it a ploy to minimise the dominance of his son in the party. The presence of Opposition stalwarts on the same stage will force Akhilesh Yadav to share the spotlight and deflect attention from the presidential-style campaign he is focusing on.

With uncertainty prevailing over whether the BJP strategy to force social polarisation will succeed or not, and with little assurance that the SP narrative will not have many more postscripts, the present favourite to emerge at the top of the table — with a majority or as single-largest party — is undoubtedly the BSP. Currently, the two most insecure communities in India — dalits and Muslims — appear veering towards the BSP. Since they jointly account for almost 40 per cent of voters, the BSP has a head start over others. The BJP’s anti-dalit policies since Rohith Vemula’s suicide, events in Una, Dayashankar Singh’s abusive comments and the appointment of his wife as chief of its women’s wing, has alienated the community. The BJP initially hoped that non-Jatav dalits would not rally behind the BSP, but this can no longer be certain. The BSP too faced its share of turbulence, the result of desertions by several leaders. Mayawati also must infuse her campaign with greater positivity.

In 2012, after being elected chief minister, Akhilesh Yadav said: “Victories and defeats are part of elections — this time it was our turn to win.” Unless the chief minister and his party find new wind and the elders overcome the death wish that has gripped them, the race will primarily remain a two-horse race with the BSP continuing to enjoy pole position. The people will undoubtedly monitor developments before making up their mind.

The writer is the author of Narendra Modi: The Man, the Times and Sikhs: The Untold Agony of 1984