‘Above normal’ monsoon this year: IMD

Drought-hit region of Marathwada, Bundelkhand likely to receive ‘good rainfall’.

Allaying fears of drought-stricken farmers after two consecutive dry spell years, the India Meteorological Department on Tuesday predicted “above normal” monsoon in the country this year with “a fair distribution of rainfall across major parts”, including most vulnerable areas like Marathwada and Bundelkhand, where a severe rain deficit in the past two years raised serious concerns.

Soon after this announcement, the Bombay Stock Exchange’s benchmark Sensex jumped for a second straight session by 123 points to 25,145.59.

IMD director-general Laxman Singh Rathore said there was a 94 per cent chance of the country receiving “normal to above normal” rainfall, while there is only one per cent probability of “deficient” rainfall.

“The drought-hit region of Marathwada and Bundelkhand will receive ‘good rainfall’ this year,” Mr Rathore said, adding: “By and large, there will be a fair distribution of monsoon across the country. It will be a good year. During good monsoon conditions there still remain some pockets... which is Northeast India, where slightly less than normal monsoon is expected. Also the southeast part of the peninsula like Tamil Nadu and adjoining Rayalseema districts, may get slightly less than normal rainfall.”

Mr Rathore added: “We are also expecting good month-wise quantitative distribution, which may accentuate in the later half or the middle of the monsoon.”

IMD scientist D.S. Pai said the El Nino conditions are “weakening”, a phenomena that not only affected the monsoon last year, but also led to warmer winters.

“The analysis of previous data suggests that monsoon season rainfall over the country as a whole was deficient or below normal during 65 per cent of the El Nino years. However, during 71 per cent of the years followed by El Nino years, the monsoon was normal and above.” Mr Pai added: “The latest forecast from the Monsoon Mission Coupled Climate Model indicates El Nino conditions to weaken to moderate to weak levels during the first half of the monsoon season, and neutral conditions likely to get established thereafter.”

According to predictions, the monsoon seasonal rainfall will be 106 per cent of the Long Period Average (LPA), with a model error of plus/minus five per cent. Anything between 104-110 per cent of the LPA is “above normal” and beyond 110 per cent is considered as “excess”.

Due to poor monsoon in the 2015-16 crop year (July-June), 10 states have declared drought, prompting the Centre to sanction relief packages of about Rs 10,000 crores to help farmers. In 2015, the monsoon deficiency was 14 per cent, with Northwest India recording a deficiency of 17 per cent, followed by 16 per cent in Central India, 15 per cent in Southern Peninsula and 8 per cent in East and Northeast India. In 2014, the monsoon deficiency was 12.3 per cent of the LPA.

Mr Pai added that there is a good possibility of La Nina formation in the last part (August-September) of the monsoon season. La Nina (Little Girl) comes with cooling of waters in the equatorial Pacific, that occurs at irregular intervals, and is associated with widespread changes in weather patterns complementary to those of El Niño, but is less extensive and damaging in their effects.

“Currently, the intensity of drought is high in the Bundelkhand and Marathwada region. Usually, when the monsoon is good, the monsoon trough is active. The systems and depressions that get created occur over Gujarat,” he said, adding: “The monsoon is likely to be good in the western coast and the trough zone, which includes Central India and these (drought) affected areas.”

Mr Rathore also cautioned of “extremely heavy rainfall” in some areas, and said: “When there is a case of above normal rainfall, extremely heavy rainfall events will occur. But that can only be predicted in the regions. But we have to be ready for those kinds of situations. In April we will take a meeting on this to deal with this exigency.”