Don’t write off Congress, 2019 could be a different story

Despite Prime Minister Narendra Modi and the BJP chief Amit Shah repeatedly talking of a " Congress Mukta Bharat", all is not over for the Congress.

The 130 year old party is passing though its worst phase since its Independence but that does not mean one can write off the Grand Old Party.

The problem right now is that nothing much is happening within to set the house in order. Rahul Gandhi had made it known in the run up to the 2014 Lok Sabha poll results that he wanted to bring about a dramatic transformation of the organization, but the lowest ever tally of 44 seats in the Lok Sabha and the string of defeats in several states slowed that drive.

Rahul’s strategy to induct Prashant Kishor, the man who charted the rise and rise of Narendra Modi, and entrusting Kishor with the Congress ’revival in Uttar Pradesh and Punjab shows the Congress’ leadership inability to fully understand that Modi’s resurrection from reviled Gujarat strongman to the man who promised tomorrow, is not Prashant Kishore’s doing. It’s about a rising political force’s ability to tap deep into the psyche of the Indian, and promise to live up to aspirations of the people who want to shake off the shackles of poverty and join the ranks of the working middle class.

The Congress, did not have the answers then. But that does not mean it will never have them. It will find a way to reconnect and revive itself. It will build alliances as it did before when it defeated the BJP led NDA under the leadership of a stalwart like Mr Atal Behari Vajpayee in the 2004 Lok Sabha elections. At the time, the Congress in the space of three to four months had made a comeback after back to back defeats in Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan Assembly elections held by the end of 2003.

The states where the Congress can improve due to a number of factors is long – there’s Maharashtra, Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh (despite Ajit Jogi's rebellion), Haryana, Jharkhand, Telangana, Tamil Nadu, West Bengal, Kerala, Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh and Jammu and Kashmir besides Karnataka and Bihar.

While the Janata Dal (U), Rashtriya Janata Dal, Dravida Munentra Kazhagam and the Left parties have already allied with the Congress with albeit modest success in Bihar, Tamil Nadu and West Bengal for the Assembly polls, the NCP chief Sharad Pawar is talking up an anti-BJP-Shiv Sena alliance in Maharashtra while praising the Congress' philosophy.

And Rahul Gandhi has been saying privately that Jammu and Kashmir National Conference is a natural ally of the Congress.

The BJP is facing strong anti-incumbency in Gujarat, as well as in Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh but unfortunately for the Congress, it is not translating into votes due to the lack of a strong alternative. However, the Congress can take some comfort from the fact that the Modi-Shah led party has not emerged as an alternative in either Tamil Nadu, or in West Bengal, not in Kerala, or Orissa which together elect 132 Lok Sabha members.

It is unlikely to gain seats in Maharasthra, which it now governs, due to an open fight with the ally Shiv Sena, with its openly pro-Vidrarbha state line, antagonizing the rest of the regions in the state.

A CWC member said "take it from me, the BJP cannot repeat its performance in Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattgisgarh, Gujarat, Maharashtra and Delhi in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections."

“If the Modi magic did not influence voters in states like Tamil Nadu, West Bengal ,Orissa and Karnataka and Kerala despite the Modi wave how can it work in 2019 when the BJP will face anti-incumbency and people will ask what achche din,” he asked.

The BJP's expansionist strategy has already alerted regional parties which have begun to protect their space as much from the Congress as with the BJP.

The BJP's next target is Orissa with a calculation that the ruling Biju Janata Dal will find it difficult to win elections first on the anti incumbency and then infighting in the BJD.

If the BJP wants it own imprint across the country, its tie up with the AIADMK cannot continue for too long. Other regional players like the DMK, Trinamul Congress, JD(U)-RJD, Samajwadi Party, BSP, TRS, TDP, will be reluctant to cede space to the BJP in Tamil Nadu, West Bengal, Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, Telangana and Andhra, irrespective of whether they are in the NDA or friendly with the saffron party.

For the Congress, the battle is understandably far more complex. In some states, not only does it have to take on the BJP and regional parties like the AAP, in some states it has to fight on two fronts, simultaneously.

" We have to change our narrative, reach out to different sections of the society like professionals, middle class, youth, think out of the box and promote the second rung purely on the basis of merit and delivery. People dislike dynasty, they know the limitations of caste politics. The Congress has to change accordingly. If it doesn't then the vaccum could be filled up by others," Congress insiders said.

“An organisational reshuffle is not the answer to the party's revival, nor is removing a handful and replacing them with another coterie,” the insider said.

Clearly, the Congress, scrambling to hold on to its fast eroding political space, has a long and hard road ahead. But to write the Congress off, would be a mistake.