China’s unfathomable plans

The Pentagon’s annual report to the US Congress on China’s nuclear power, its territorial aggression in the East and South China seas and troop buildup close to the Indian border is not so much alarmist as a realistic assessment of rising military capabilities. However, the “force posture” warning is specially relevant to India, now caught in the middle of changing global geopolitics. China is putting forth its usual defence, that it follows “a national defence policy that’s defensive in nature,” but this alters little in India-China ties, despite Narendra Modi striking a personal rapport with Xi Jinping.

These strategic shifts couldn’t have gone unnoticed in the Indian establishment and think tanks as the nation moves closer towards the US in civil nuclear matters, besides signing a preliminary military logistics agreement. America’s espousal of India’s cause for a Nuclear Suppliers Group slot also created tensions, with China vehemently protesting. The warmer India-US vibes may lead to cooling of the earlier close defence ties with Russia, which experts say is moving somewhat closer to Pakistan as a counterbalancing measure.

India’s move away from Russia as the key arms supplier could be over its unreliability in technical terms as well as the intent evidenced in the aircraft-carrier deal. Truth to tell, India is out on a limb thanks to prickly neighbours and must continuously reassess its strategic position in the region. It was Sun Tzu who said a leader must be capable of comprehending “unfathomable plans”, which is what India may be trying to do with China’s latest moves.