Will rural UP give Congress a chance

Uttar Pradesh is a state with an 80 per cent rural populace, where about 68 per cent of households depend on farming and related activities as their main source of livelihood. So ideally farmers should hold the key to who forms the next government in the state. But sadly, in spite of their large numbers, they aren’t the decision-makers as they aren’t mobilised on occupational lines. Since they don’t vote en bloc as farmers; their vote is divided as others vote mainly on caste lines.

There are good reasons why they should now unite: there is a shared feeling among people in UP, more so among farmers, that their economic condition has worsened in the past five years.

The findings of a new survey by the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies indicate 52 per cent of people in UP believe that in the last five years, the state of UP’s farmers has deteriorated, while only 17 per cent feel it has improved.

There is another 21 per cent who believe it has remained the same, while 10 per cent didn’t express their opinion. In this backdrop, Congress vice-president Rahul Gandhi’s plan to embark on a month-long Kisan Yatra from Deoria to Delhi, six months before the Assembly polls, should help the Congress reach out to rural voters, specially farmers, establishing a reconnect with rural voters. This might help the Congress in at least moving on its path of revival, but can it bring the Congress anywhere closer to being a serious contender for power in the state The answer seems simple: while it may help in the party’s long-term revival, it won’t be enough to bring it anywhere close to even seriously being in the 2017 Assembly race.

The Congress’ voteshare is at an all-time low with 7.5 per cent votes in the 2014 Lok Sabha polls. In the 2009 Lok Sabha elections, it managed to perform well when it polled 18.3 per cent votes, as a result of which it won 21 seats. However, except in 2009, the party’s electoral support has remained very low for nearly three decades.

It is important to recollect that the Congress won the last Assembly polls in UP in 1985, when it got 252 Assembly seats and polled 38.6 per cent of the vote. The problems don’t stop here. Not only has its voteshare declined, the party is standing on its head in UP. While nationally, the Congress draws more support among rural voters, in UP its voteshare is much higher in urban seats compared to rural constituencies.

Except for the 2009 Lok Sabha polls, when the Congress managed to get a sizeable number of votes in rural areas as well (18 per cent in rural and 22 per cent in urban seats), in most Assembly and Lok Sabha elections since 1999, the Congress’ voteshare in rural constituencies is three or four times less compared to urban constituencies. During the 2002 Assembly elections, the party polled six per cent votes in rural constituencies while its voteshare in urban constituencies was 22 per cent.

Similarly, in the 2007 Assembly elections, it got eight per cent votes in rural constituencies while in urban seats it got 16 per cent votes. The 2012 Assembly election was hardly different as the party polled 10 per cent votes in rural constituencies while in urban constituencies it polled 18 per cent votes.

With more than 300 Assembly constituencies having 75 per cent or more rural voters, and only 30 Assembly seats with more than 75 per cent urban voters (the rest is in between), the party is hardly in a serious electoral contest in 300 constituencies.

The Congress appears to have realised that in order to revive itself in the state, it must focus on rural voters. If seen in this respect, the Congress seems to have made at least a good beginning. The strategy of launching 1,600 kits with publicity material like “Kisan Maangpatra”, and holding khaat panchayats for one-to-one interactions seems to be a good strategy.

The newly-coined slogans like “Karz maaf, bijli half, samarthan mulya ka karo hisaab”, not only to woo farmers but also questioning the BJP about the promises it had made in the 2014 Lok Sabha poll campaign could work. Other slogans like “Hum Hai Congress” will help remind people about the Congress’ presence in the state, while slogans like “27 saal UP behaal” will help remind voters about the misgovernance of the state by successive parties that have been in power in UP in the past three decades.

This could help mobilise farmers to some extent. This new Congress campaign strategy may, however, not be enough to bring it anywhere close to power. With only 12.1 per cent votes in the 2012 Assembly elections, the party needs a huge swing in its favour to be anywhere close to the majority mark.

A roughly five per cent swing in favour of the Congress (with a uniform negative swing against all other parties) can only help the party win close to 60 Assembly seats, while a 10 per cent positive swing can help the Congress win close to 100 Assembly seats.

The Congress needs an 18 per cent positive swing in its favour to come close to the majority mark — which is a Herculean task. Though the khaats may have been stolen, taken away by those who came to attend the rally, this strategy may help the party move ahead on the path to revival, but only in the long run.

The writer is a professor and currently director of the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies. The views expressed are personal.