2016: BJP’s big fight

BJP’s defeat in the Bihar Assembly election is undoubtedly a setback for the party, more so the Narendra Modi-Amit Shah duo, given the fact that while the former was the mascot of the party's campaign, the latter was the producer-director of the entire mission. It is also natural that while the party leadership has talked about collective leadership, the stalwarts who have been sidelined find in this a golden opportunity to hit back. It is a different story that under a couple of these very veterans, the party was perceived to be much more communal and electoral victory was more of an exception.

Again it would be unfair to view the Bihar poll verdict as a vote against BJP. The elections certainly were not a cakewalk for the BJP from the word go given the formidable caste combination it was pitted against.

Unmindful of what he stated about Hindus eating beef and the NDA’s efforts to hammer it on the clansmen of Lord Krishna, the Yadavas knew too well that their golden era can be restored only under the leadership of the RJD chief. The Kurmis too knew that Nitish was their best bet. It was also known that no Owaisi would be able to cut much ice with the sizable Muslim voters of the state. Not that the Hyderabad brothers don’t have fans among the community but when it comes to Bihar, they know for sure that if one leader had consistently opposed the BJP, from the days he stalled Advani’s Rath at Samastipur, it was Lalu.

Some wrong candidates here and there, over-centralisation of the party’s poll campaign, irresponsible statements by party leaders, and a successful campaign against Modi’s DNA comments and RSS chief Mohan Bhagwat’s remarks on reservation, too contributed to BJP’s debacle.

But at the end of the day, it was the good work Nitish did, of which the BJP too was a partner for eight of the 10 years, which paid dividends for the Grand Alliance. In the absence of a credible local face, the people of Bihar did not find a viable alternative to ‘Sushasan Babu’.

The people of Bihar voted for Modi in the Lok Sabha polls and Nitish Kumar in the Assembly elections. There is absolutely no contradiction as was the case with people of Delhi who earlier this year gave a landslide win to Kejriwal months after handing over all the seven Lok Sabha seats to the BJP.

If indeed both Delhi and Patna results indicate that the Modi magic is waning, then what about the verdict in Maharashtra, Haryana, Jharkhand and Jammu and Kashmir in the middle of the year, and subsequently Ladakh and recently in Kerala civic polls

To begin with, the most important lesson is not to pit the Prime Minister in every municipal polls. It diminishes both his stature and mandate. Secondly, in Haryana and Maharashtra, the party could do without projecting a Chief Ministerial candidate as there was no credible alternative in the ruling dispensation unlike in Bihar. The same formula does not necessarily work everywhere.

The BJP and its leaders will have to overcome the campaign mode which worked well when the party was in opposition. It is now the ruling party and its tone, tenor and language should change correspondingly.

Similarly, BJP is a political party and has to be run like one, involving grassroots level workers, entrusting them with responsibility and relying more on voluntarism rather than management.

In governance too, notwithstanding major initiatives at the macro level, it is high time at least some micro level changes too became visible. In a nation, increasingly addicted to two-minute noodles, electoral loyalties are temporary, any delay in delivery is not condoned and punishment is instant.

Communication, particularly constant engagement and interaction with the media, has to be an important and integral component of governance. Direct messaging with the target audience is effective but if the messenger is ignored, he may end up being misinterpreted, deliberately or otherwise, which could prove fatal in electoral politics.

Yet, every state and every poll has its own dynamics. If Modi could not repeat Haryana in Bihar, by the same logic why BJP’s electoral fiasco in Bihar should necessarily re-run in Uttar Pradesh, Assam, Tamil Nadu, Kerala or West Bengal in the 2016 elections

A re-energised Congress ahead of the upcoming polls may be a pipe dream but an opposition solidarity which among other factors queered the pitch for the BJP in Bihar has the potential to decisively halt the Modi-Shah juggernaut. The duo have to prove that Bihar was an aberration and one swallow does not make a summer.

A tale of five states...

Every state and every poll has its own dynamics. If Modi could not repeat Haryana in Bihar, by the same logic why BJP’s electoral fiasco in Bihar should necessarily re-run in Uttar Pradesh, Assam, Tamil Nadu, Kerala or West Bengal in the 2016 elections

State-wise scene It was the mandate in Uttar Pradesh which gave BJP the edge in the last Lok Sabha polls. The recent local polls has witnessed a resurgent BSP but BJP still has some time to catch up, provided it draws up the right strategy to counter the two regional caste-based outfits

Tamil Nadu has never been saffron territory. Moreover, the BJP is caught between keeping Jaya as an ally at Centre and yet prove its presence in the state. Not much can be expected from Chennai for the time being. Kerala may prove more fertile as the recent local polls indicate. With the influential SNDP outfit of the backward Ezhava community singing a pro-Hindutva tune, BJP has the potential not only to make a grand debut in the upcoming polls but also upset the apple cart of the two major alliances in the state. Going by the large scale influx of Congress leaders into BJP, the saffron party is projected to be a key contender in the race for Guwahati. But the wily Tarun Gogoi is not going to make it a cakewalk. The consolidation of minority votes may prove detrimental in the Lotus path to power.

(The author is professor with Makhanlal Chaturvedi National University of Journalism, Bhopal)