Economic data to move markets

Markets corrected during the week ended after unnerved by weakness in global markets, profit booking after RBI rate cut and renewed selling from FIIs. The Sensex and the Nifty ended 594 points and 157 points lower to close at 24,674 and 7,555.

More than ever after two back-to-back weak monsoons, this year monsoon is likely to dictate the course of markets. RBI policy is expected to give positive footing to the nascent industrial recovery.

With the start of Q4 results season, important economic data points (US Jobs data, domestic IIP and inflation numbers) and two successive holidays before the weekend in the coming week (Amb-dekar Jayanti on April 14 and Ram Navami on April 15), expect range bound consolidation week.

For the truncated week ahead, chartists predict trading range of 24,150-25,150 and 7,425-7,685 for the indices. Key supports for the indices are at 24,350 and 24,100 and 7,470 and 7,400. Earnings season is not expected to deliver any major surprises. Adopt stock specific strategy and be very cautious on market.

A mixture of early 2016 market turmoil and an erosion of confidence in central banks sent gold spiking 16.5 per cent to $1,234 an ounce in the first quarter reflecting gold’s role as the ultimate safe haven that investors turn to. Investors are concerned the US Fed has few tools left to use in a crisis.

The objectivity of the market analysis done by the conscious mind can be compromised by all sorts of extraneous considerations (e.g., one’s current market position, a resistance to change a previous forecast). The trick is to differentiate between what you want to happen and what you know will happen.